GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list?

Name: Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list?
End: 2026-09-08T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$2.23K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list?

Vol

$2.23K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.23K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.23K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$2.23K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A list on which both individuals ap

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 8, 2026 (4 days left)
**Time Pressure:** High

**Description:** Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A list on which both individuals ap

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $8.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.26)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 8, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics