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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Name: Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
End: 2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$263.67K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Vol

$263.67K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $263.67K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $263.67K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	39%
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	35%
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	22%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	4%
Will Fernando Haddad finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	4%
Will Eduardo Leite finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	1%
Will Camilo Santana finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	1%
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	1%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Aldo Rebelo finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

39%

Top Probability

$263.67K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, July 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 4, 2026 (81 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes receiv"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $263.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $102.9K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.56)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $4.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $4.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $39.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Aldo Rebelo finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $4.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $93.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Camilo Santana finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $5.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Eduardo Leite finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Fernando Haddad finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $14.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $56.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 34.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $7.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $5.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $15.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETWorld