Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs
Total Volume
$22.14K
Events
1
Markets
33
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs
Vol
$22.14K
|
Events
1
|
Markets
33
$22.14K
1
33
$22.14K
1
33
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market refers to the LoL Grand final match between Cloud9 and LYON in the LCS Lock In Playoffs, initially scheduled for March 1 at 4:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Cloud9" if Cloud9 win the match against LYON. This market will resolve to "LYON" if LYON win the match against Cloud9. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but
Prediction markets tracking this League of Legends playoff final give Cloud9 a strong advantage. The most actively traded question on this match isn't about who wins, but about the specific action in Game 2: whether the total number of champion kills will be over or under 24.5. Traders place about a 3 in 4 chance that Game 2 will be a high-kill, aggressive game, going over that line. This specific focus suggests the broader market sees Cloud9 as the clear favorite, leading traders to bet on the style of the match rather than its uncertain outcome.
Two main factors shape this forecast. First, Cloud9 is a perennial LCS powerhouse with a history of winning domestic titles, while LYON (formerly Golden Guardians) is a rebuilt roster seen as an underdog. This creates an expectation that Cloud9 will control the pace of the game. Second, the Lock In tournament is a preseason event where teams often prioritize testing aggressive strategies over safe, calculated play. Historical data from similar preseason matches shows a tendency for messy, fight-heavy games as teams experiment, which directly supports the high probability of a kill-heavy Game 2.
The match is set for March 1 at 4:00 PM ET. The main signal to watch is the draft phase for Game 2. If both teams select late-game, scaling team compositions, the likelihood of an early bloody skirmish decreases. Conversely, picks centered on early-game champions and strong engage tools would signal traders' high-kill forecast is on track. Any last-minute roster changes or substitutions announced before the match could also shift expectations.
Markets on preseason esports events can be less reliable than those for major championships, as team form and motivation are harder to gauge. However, markets on kill totals in League of Legends have a decent track record. They effectively aggregate knowledge about team playstyles and current game trends, which are more consistent than trying to predict a single upset victory. The main limitation is the small market size here. With only about $22,000 wagered, the odds may be more sensitive to a few large bets than the true wisdom of a large crowd.
The Polymarket contract for Cloud9 to defeat LYON in the LCS Lock In final is trading at 74 cents, implying a 74% probability of a Cloud9 victory. This price indicates the market views Cloud9 as a clear favorite, but not an overwhelming one. A 26% chance for LYON suggests a non-trivial possibility of an upset. With only $22,000 in total volume across 33 related markets, liquidity is thin. This can lead to more volatile price swings based on small trades or last-minute information.
Cloud9's status as a perennial LCS powerhouse is the primary driver. They consistently field rosters built to win championships and have a deep organizational history of success. LYON, while having a strong Lock In run, is a newer organization without the same pedigree. Recent head-to-head performance in the regular season or earlier playoff rounds would heavily influence this line. If Cloud9 dominated those encounters, the 74% price is justified. The market is likely pricing in Cloud9's superior experience in best-of-five series and their typical roster advantage in individual skill lanes.
The most immediate catalyst is the match itself, set for March 1. Any last-minute roster news, such as a key player illness or an unexpected substitution, could cause sharp price movement. In-game events will also drive related micro-markets, like the "Total Kills Over/Under" contract. If LYON wins the first game in the best-of-five series, the odds for the overall match will tighten considerably. Conversely, a dominant Cloud9 start could push their contract price above 85%, making a comeback very expensive to bet on. Thin liquidity means any major news could have an exaggerated effect on the trading price compared to a deeper market.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the best-of-five League of Legends Championship Series (LCS) Lock In tournament final between Cloud9 and LYON. The LCS is North America's premier professional League of Legends competition. The Lock In tournament is a preseason event that traditionally kicks off the competitive year, offering teams an early chance to test new rosters and strategies in a competitive setting. The match was originally scheduled for March 1, 2024, at 4:00 PM Eastern Time. Prediction markets allow participants to trade contracts based on the outcome of this specific match, with settlement determined by which team wins the series. The market resolves clearly to the winning team's name, with provisions for cancellation or significant delay resulting in a split settlement. This event draws attention because it features a clash between an established LCS powerhouse, Cloud9, and a newer organization, LYON, which represents a rebranding and restructuring of the former Golden Guardians franchise. The outcome provides an early indicator of team strength and meta adaptations heading into the Spring Split, the first major stage of the LCS season. For fans and analysts, the Lock In final offers a first look at how revamped rosters perform under pressure, making it a significant, albeit preseason, competitive benchmark.
Cloud9 is one of the most storied franchises in LCS history. The organization entered the league in 2013 and won its first LCS split in the 2013 Summer Season. Cloud9 has since won a total of five LCS championships, with their most recent title coming in the 2023 Spring Split. They are also known for being the only North American team to reach the semifinals of the League of Legends World Championship, achieving this feat in 2018. Historically, Cloud9 has been a consistent top performer, missing the LCS playoffs only once in the league's history. LYON's history is more recent. The organization is the successor to the Golden Guardians, a team owned by the Golden State Warriors that competed in the LCS from 2018 to 2023. The Golden Guardians found moderate success, with their peak being a second-place finish in the 2023 LCS Summer Split. Following that season, the organization was sold and rebranded as LYON ahead of the 2024 competitive year. The Lock In tournament itself was introduced by the LCS in 2021 as a way to create meaningful preseason competition. Cloud9 won the inaugural Lock In event in 2021, while Team Liquid won in 2022. The 2023 Lock In was won by FlyQuest. This final represents LYON's first opportunity to win an LCS-affiliated trophy under its new identity, while Cloud9 aims to add another preseason title to its collection.
The result of this match has implications for the perceived hierarchy of the 2024 LCS season. A victory for LYON would validate its aggressive offseason rebuild and instantly establish the new brand as a championship contender, potentially shifting power dynamics in the league. For Cloud9, a loss to a rebranded team could raise questions about its offseason preparations and roster cohesion, affecting fan and analyst confidence before the Spring Split begins. Economically, strong preseason performances can influence sponsor interest, merchandise sales, and overall brand value for the winning organization. For the league, a competitive final between a legacy team and a newcomer generates narrative interest and viewership, which is vital for the LCS's health as it competes with other regional leagues and esports. The match also serves as a key data point for international analysts assessing North America's strength ahead of the Mid-Season Invitational and World Championship later in the year.
The LCS Lock In tournament playoff bracket progressed through February 2024, culminating in this scheduled final between Cloud9 and LYON. Both teams advanced through their respective knockout matches to earn a place in the championship series. The match was set to be played on March 1, 2024. All player rosters for both teams were locked in prior to the start of the Lock In event, meaning the lineups for this final were confirmed. The outcome of this match will determine the winner of the 2024 LCS Lock In tournament.
The LCS Lock In is a preseason tournament held before the official LCS Spring Split. It features all LCS teams competing for a separate trophy and a prize pool. It allows teams to test new rosters and strategies in a competitive environment.
LYON is the new brand identity for the former Golden Guardians franchise. The organization was sold and rebranded after the 2023 season. They retained some staff and built a new roster, with Joseph "Jojopyun" Pyun as their star mid laner acquisition.
The final is a best-of-five series. The first team to win three individual games wins the match and the tournament. There is no bracket reset or grand final advantage.
The match is broadcast live on the official LCS Twitch and YouTube channels. It is also typically carried on co-streams by popular streamers and analysts with permission from the LCS.
No, the Lock In tournament is a separate preseason event. Winning it does not award points toward qualifying for the LCS Championship or the Mid-Season Invitational. Those points are earned during the Spring and Summer Splits.
According to the prediction market rules, if the match is delayed beyond 7 days from its scheduled date without a winner being determined, the market would resolve to a 50-50 split. The LCS would be responsible for rescheduling the match at a later time.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
33 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 74% |
| Poly | 70% |
| Poly | 68% |
| Poly | 64% |
| Poly | 62% |
| Poly | 61% |
| Poly | 61% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 49% |
| Poly | 35% |
| Poly | 18% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/ZqLDf3" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs"></iframe>