Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of October 13, 2026

Name: Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of October 13, 2026
End: 2026-10-15T13:00:00.000Z

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Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of October 13, 2026

Vol

$0.00

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

40 markets tracked

Will Oklahoma have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(40)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Oklahoma have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	97%
Will Colorado have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	96%
Will Wisconsin have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	92%
Will Arkansas have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	91%
Will Mississippi have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	91%
Will Nebraska have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	91%
Will Idaho have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	89%
Will Texas have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	89%
Will Nevada have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	85%
Will Alabama have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will Arizona have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will California have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will Delaware have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will Florida have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will Illinois have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will Iowa have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will Kentucky have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will Louisiana have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will Maryland have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will Minnesota have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will Missouri have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will Montana have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will New Jersey have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will New Mexico have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will North Carolina have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will North Dakota have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will Ohio have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will Oregon have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will Pennsylvania have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will South Carolina have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will South Dakota have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will Tennessee have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will Utah have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will Virginia have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will Washington have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will Wyoming have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	50%
Will Georgia have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	2%
Will Indiana have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	2%
Will Kansas have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	2%
Will West Virginia have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

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97%

Top Probability

$0.00

Volume

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About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed state that has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No". States appear only during the months in which they plausibly reach D4, so this event's roster changes through the year. 40 of the 48 coterminous states are in season for Oc

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of October 13, 2026
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 15, 2026 (4 days left)
**Time Pressure:** High

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed state that has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".

States appear only during the months in which they plausibly reach D4, so this event's roster changes through the year. 40 of the 48 coterminous states are in season for Oc

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alabama has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and reso"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Alabama have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Arizona have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Arkansas have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 91.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will California have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Colorado have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Delaware have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Florida have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Georgia have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Idaho have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 88.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Illinois have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Indiana have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Iowa have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Kansas have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Kentucky have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Louisiana have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Maryland have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Minnesota have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Mississippi have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 91.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Missouri have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Montana have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Nebraska have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 90.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Nevada have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 84.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.5% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will New Jersey have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will New Mexico have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will North Carolina have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will North Dakota have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will Ohio have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will Oklahoma have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will Oregon have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 30. Will Pennsylvania have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 31. Will South Carolina have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 32. Will South Dakota have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 33. Will Tennessee have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 34. Will Texas have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 88.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.5% (0.0%)]

### 35. Will Utah have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 36. Will Virginia have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 37. Will Washington have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 38. Will West Virginia have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 39. Will Wisconsin have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 92.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.0% (0.0%)]

### 40. Will Wyoming have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate

Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of October 13, 2026

Volume$0.00

Markets40

40 of 40

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POLYMARKET

Will Oklahoma have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 96.5¢No 3.5¢

POLYMARKETClimate

CLOSING SOON

Will Oklahoma have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Oklahoma has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and res

POLYMARKET

Will Colorado have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 96.0¢No 4.0¢

POLYMARKETClimate

CLOSING SOON

Will Colorado have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Colorado has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and res

POLYMARKET

Will Wisconsin have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 92.0¢No 8.0¢

POLYMARKETClimate

CLOSING SOON

Will Wisconsin have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Wisconsin has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and re

POLYMARKET

Will Arkansas have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 91.0¢No 9.0¢

POLYMARKETClimate

CLOSING SOON

Will Arkansas have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arkansas has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and res

POLYMARKET

Will Mississippi have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 91.0¢No 9.0¢

POLYMARKETClimate

CLOSING SOON

Will Mississippi have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mississippi has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and

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Oct 15, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC

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Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of October 13, 2026

Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of October 13, 2026

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Will Oklahoma have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of October 13, 2026

Markets (40)

Will Oklahoma have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

Will Oklahoma have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

Will Colorado have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

Will Colorado have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

Will Wisconsin have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

Will Wisconsin have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

Will Arkansas have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

Will Arkansas have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

Will Mississippi have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

Will Mississippi have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Oklahoma have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of October 13, 2026

Will Oklahoma have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

Will Oklahoma have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

Will Colorado have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

Will Colorado have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

Will Wisconsin have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

Will Wisconsin have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

Will Arkansas have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

Will Arkansas have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

Will Mississippi have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

Will Mississippi have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

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