Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

7Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?

Total Volume

$3.19K

Events

Markets

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7Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?

Vol

$3.19K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $3.19K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.19K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.05% on Oct 30, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.05% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	65%
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	62%
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	57%
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.11% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	53%
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.13% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	50%
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.15% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	45%
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.17% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	42%
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.19% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	39%
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.21% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	35%
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.23% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	32%
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.25% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	29%
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.27% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	26%
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	23%
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.31% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	20%
Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.33% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	15%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

65%

Top Probability

$3.19K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On Oct 30, 2026 If the par yield for the 7Y U.S. Treasury is above X on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 30, 2026, or one week following Oct 30, 2026.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 7Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?
**Category:** Financials | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Oct 30, 2026

If the par yield for the 7Y U.S. Treasury is above X on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 30, 2026, or one week following Oct 30, 2026.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the par yield for the 7Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.33% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 30, 2026, or one week following Oct 30, 2026."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.33% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $311
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.31% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.27% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $36
  DATA: [Yes: 26.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.25% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $148
  DATA: [Yes: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.23% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $177
  DATA: [Yes: 32.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.21% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $305
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.19% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $340
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.17% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.15% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $33
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.13% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $443
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.11% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $220
  DATA: [Yes: 53.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 57.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 61.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.05% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $476
  DATA: [Yes: 65.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 35.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIFinancials

7Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?

Volume$3.19K

Markets15

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KALSHI

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.05% on Oct 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 65.0¢No 35.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.05% on Oct 30, 2026?

If the par yield for the 7Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.05% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 30, 2026, or one week following Oct 30, 2026.

KALSHI

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% on Oct 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 61.5¢No 38.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% on Oct 30, 2026?

If the par yield for the 7Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.07% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 30, 2026, or one week following Oct 30, 2026.

KALSHI

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% on Oct 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 57.0¢No 43.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% on Oct 30, 2026?

If the par yield for the 7Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.09% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 30, 2026, or one week following Oct 30, 2026.

KALSHI

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.11% on Oct 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 53.0¢No 47.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.11% on Oct 30, 2026?

If the par yield for the 7Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.11% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 30, 2026, or one week following Oct 30, 2026.

KALSHI

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.13% on Oct 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.13% on Oct 30, 2026?

If the par yield for the 7Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.13% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 30, 2026, or one week following Oct 30, 2026.

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7Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?

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Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.05% on Oct 30, 2026?

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Events (1)

7Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?

Markets (15)

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.05% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.05% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.11% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.11% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.13% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.13% on Oct 30, 2026?

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Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.05% on Oct 30, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

7Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.05% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.05% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.11% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.11% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.13% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.13% on Oct 30, 2026?

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