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| Market | Platform | Price |
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![]() | Poly | 34% |
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of views any YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 7 days after being posted is greater than or equal to 100 million by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the d
Prediction markets currently assign a low 34% probability that a MrBeast YouTube video will achieve 100 million views within its first week by the March 31, 2026 deadline. This price, trading at 34¢ for "Yes" on Polymarket, indicates the consensus views the feat as unlikely, though not impossible. The thin trading volume of approximately $2,000 suggests limited market conviction, making the current odds particularly sensitive to new information.
The primary factor suppressing the probability is the historical precedent of MrBeast's own content. While he is the most subscribed individual creator and frequently produces viral content, the 100-million-views-in-one-week benchmark is exceptionally high. An analysis of his recent major uploads shows that even his most successful videos, like "$1 vs $1,000,000 Hotel Room!", typically garner between 50-80 million views in their first seven days. The market is effectively pricing in the difficulty of surpassing his own high watermark by a significant margin.
Secondly, the timeline introduces uncertainty. The market resolves on March 31, 2026, regardless of upload schedule. This creates a binary risk: MrBeast must not only decide to post a video before the deadline, but that specific video must be of a caliber capable of achieving this record-breaking pace. The market is factoring in the possibility of a less viral video cycle or even no major upload within the 75-day window.
The odds are highly dependent on MrBeast's content calendar and promotional strategy. A definitive announcement of a landmark, high-budget video (e.g., a new "Squid Game" replica or a monumental charity stunt) scheduled for release well before the deadline would likely cause the "Yes" share price to surge. Conversely, a prolonged period without a major upload announcement as the deadline approaches would solidify the "No" position.
The immediate performance of his next major video will be a critical catalyst. If his next upload in the coming weeks approaches 90 million views in its first week, it would demonstrate an upward trajectory and make the 100 million target seem more plausible, likely increasing market probability. The current low liquidity means any concrete news could trigger significant price movement.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns whether any YouTube video posted by popular creator MrBeast will achieve 100 million views within its first seven days of publication by March 31, 2026. The market specifically tracks the view count on MrBeast's official YouTube channel, requiring the milestone to be reached through the platform's native view counter. This represents a significant benchmark in digital content creation, testing the upper limits of viral video performance and audience engagement in the social media era. The question has gained attention as MrBeast, whose real name is Jimmy Donaldson, has consistently pushed the boundaries of YouTube viewership records through increasingly elaborate and high-production content. Recent developments show his videos regularly achieving tens of millions of views within days, with several approaching but not yet reaching the 100 million mark in the first week. Interest in this prediction stems from multiple factors, including the economic implications for digital advertising, the evolving nature of online celebrity, and what it signals about the scalability of creator-led content. Analysts, advertisers, and fellow creators are watching closely as this milestone would represent unprecedented growth in the creator economy and potentially reshape expectations for digital content performance metrics.
The pursuit of YouTube viewership milestones has evolved dramatically since the platform's 2005 launch. The first video to reach 1 million views was 'Evolution of Dance' in 2006, taking approximately six months to achieve that milestone. By contrast, contemporary viral hits can reach millions of views within hours. MrBeast's own trajectory illustrates this acceleration, with his early videos taking months to reach 1 million views, while his 2021 video '$456,000 Squid Game In Real Life' achieved 100 million total views in approximately two weeks. The specific benchmark of 100 million views in one week represents an exponential increase from historical norms. Prior to 2020, only a handful of videos globally had ever reached 100 million views in their first week, typically major music video releases from artists like Taylor Swift or BTS, or exceptional viral phenomena like 'Despacito.' Creator-led content achieving this milestone is a very recent development. The current record for fastest to 100 million views for a non-music video is held by 'Baby Shark Dance' at approximately 10 days in 2020. MrBeast's closest approach came with 'I Spent 50 Hours Buried Alive' in November 2023, which reached approximately 85 million views in its first seven days. This historical progression demonstrates both the growing scale of digital audiences and the increasing professionalization of creator content production.
Achieving 100 million views in one week would represent a watershed moment for the creator economy, demonstrating that individual creators can match or exceed the immediate audience reach of traditional media events like major sporting championships or award shows. This milestone would validate YouTube as a primary entertainment platform rather than merely supplemental media, potentially accelerating the shift of advertising dollars from television to digital creators. The economic implications are substantial, as such viewership would translate to estimated advertising revenue between $2-4 million for the video itself, plus significant brand partnership value and merchandise sales driven by the exposure. Socially, this achievement would further cement the influence of digital creators in popular culture, potentially affecting everything from consumer behavior to career aspirations among younger generations. It would also intensify discussions about platform power concentration, as a single creator achieving this level of reach raises questions about algorithmic fairness and the sustainability of the creator ecosystem. For the advertising industry, it would force a reevaluation of what constitutes mass media and how to measure audience engagement in the digital age.
As of early 2025, MrBeast continues to release videos on his main channel approximately every 2-3 weeks, with each new upload consistently achieving between 40-80 million views in the first seven days. His most recent major videos have maintained this high performance range but have not broken the 90 million first-week barrier. The creator has hinted at increasingly ambitious projects in development, suggesting production scales that could generate unprecedented interest. Meanwhile, YouTube's algorithm continues to prioritize watch time and engagement metrics that favor MrBeast's content style. The platform has made no major algorithm changes that would significantly disadvantage long-form, high-production content in recent months. Several major brand partnerships have been announced for upcoming videos, which typically include coordinated promotional campaigns that could boost initial viewership.
MrBeast's video 'I Spent 50 Hours Buried Alive' achieved approximately 42 million views in its first 24 hours in November 2023. This represents his current record for fastest view accumulation and provides insight into the early velocity needed to reach 100 million in seven days.
YouTube counts a view when a user intentionally initiates playback and watches for approximately 30 seconds. The platform has sophisticated fraud detection systems that filter out automated or artificial views. Views are updated periodically rather than in real-time, with the counter temporarily freezing at certain thresholds for verification.
Key factors include YouTube's recommendation algorithm prioritizing content with high watch time and engagement, existing subscriber base size, cross-promotion on other platforms, trending topics or challenges, production quality, and strategic release timing. Thumbnail design and title optimization also significantly affect click-through rates from recommendations.
Yes, the music video for 'Butter' by BTS reached 100 million views in approximately 3 days and 10 hours in 2021, setting the overall record. For non-music content, no video has reached 100 million views in a single day, with the fastest typically taking 3-5 days for major cultural events or viral phenomena.
Estimated advertising revenue for 100 million views ranges from $2-4 million, depending on factors like audience geography, video length, and advertiser demand. Additional revenue from sponsorships, merchandise sales, and cross-promotional value can substantially increase total earnings beyond direct ad revenue.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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