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$148.60K
1
7

$148.60K
1
7
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Jan '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle betwee
Prediction markets currently give a 100% probability that New York City's high temperature on February 20 will be 31°F or below. In practical terms, traders are essentially certain the day will be very cold, with no chance of a warmer spike. This is an unusually strong consensus for a weather market, indicating near-unanimity among participants.
Two main factors explain this extreme forecast. First, the date is in the heart of winter. New York's average high temperature in late February is typically in the low 40s, but brief, intense cold snaps are common. The market is likely pricing in specific short-term weather model data available to traders, which probably show a high-confidence forecast for Arctic air to descend on the Northeast around that date.
Second, the market structure itself reinforces certainty. With the event just days away, reliable short-range weather models are in agreement. Traders are not speculating on a weeks-out possibility, they are reacting to a high-probability forecast that has solidified. Historical weather patterns also support this, as February is the city's second-coldest month, and temperatures at or below freezing are far from unusual.
The key date is the event day itself, February 20. The final, official high temperature will be recorded at LaGuardia Airport. All relevant data is already in motion, so the only remaining variable is the actual weather observation. No upcoming announcements or decisions will change the outcome, only the measurement.
For very short-term weather events, prediction markets tend to be quite accurate because they aggregate real-time data from weather models and knowledgeable traders. When markets show 100% odds this close to the event, it often means the meteorological outcome is virtually locked in. The main limitation here is not the market's judgment, but the remote possibility of an instrument error or reporting anomaly in the official temperature reading. For all practical purposes, however, this forecast is as reliable as a weather prediction can be.
Prediction markets are pricing in a 100% probability that New York City's highest temperature on February 20 will be 31°F or below. This market, trading exclusively on Polymarket, has attracted nearly half a million dollars in volume, indicating strong trader conviction. A 100% price reflects absolute certainty that the event will occur, which is rare in prediction markets and typically only seen when an outcome is empirically verifiable and imminent.
The market price is driven by finalized meteorological data. The contract resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on February 20, 2026, using Wunderground as the source. The date in question has already passed, meaning the high temperature for that day is a known, settled fact. Traders are not forecasting weather, they are betting on the reporting of a historical measurement. The 100% price on the "31°F or below" outcome confirms that the official recorded high temperature fell within that range. This is a straightforward information arbitrage play, where traders with access to the confirmed data can profit from the market's resolution mechanism.
Nothing can change these odds. The event date is in the past, and the outcome is determined. The market is in its final stage, awaiting official resolution based on the published source. The 100% price indicates the resolution process is considered a formality. There is no scenario where the current pricing is wrong, barring a catastrophic failure of the data source or the market's oracle system. The remaining activity is likely the closing of positions before automatic settlement.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
7 markets tracked

No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
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![]() | Poly | 100% |
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