$26.19K
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$26.19K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
SJ at DET (Jan 16) If San Jose and Detroit collectively score over X total goals in the San Jose at Detroit professional hockey game originally scheduled for Jan 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently assign an 88% probability that the San Jose at Detroit NHL game will feature over 3.5 total goals scored. This price, trading at 88 cents on Kalshi, indicates the market views a high-scoring game as the overwhelming consensus outcome. An 88% chance suggests traders see this as very likely, with only a 12% implied probability of the game ending with 3 or fewer total goals.
Two primary hockey analytics factors are driving this heavy pricing toward the over. First, the defensive performance of the involved teams is critical. The San Jose Sharks have consistently been among the league's weakest defensive teams in recent seasons, often ranking at or near the bottom in goals against per game. This creates a high baseline for opposing teams' scoring. Second, game context matters. While individual player form varies, matchups involving one team with a porous defense typically lead to market optimism on goal totals, as sportsbooks set higher lines for these games. The 3.5 goal line is relatively low for the NHL, where the league average often exceeds 6 total goals per game, making this "over" a less demanding threshold to clear.
The primary risk to the current high probability is goaltending performance. An unexpectedly strong showing from either starting goaltender, or a last-minute change to a hot backup goalie, could suppress scoring and shift odds. Additionally, the market's thin liquidity, with only $6K in volume, means odds could be more volatile if sharp, high-volume bets enter closer to puck drop. The market may also react to official lineup confirmations, particularly if key offensive players are declared inactive, which would be a catalyst for the "under" probability to rise from its current 12% level.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the total combined goals scored in a National Hockey League regular season game between the San Jose Sharks and the Detroit Red Wings, originally scheduled for January 16, 2026. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the total goals scored by both teams exceed a predetermined threshold, X. This is a classic 'over/under' wager, a fundamental betting line in sports gambling and prediction markets, where participants forecast whether the combined offensive output of the two teams will surpass a number set by oddsmakers. The specific matchup pits a Western Conference team, the San Jose Sharks, against an Eastern Conference opponent, the Detroit Red Wings, in a non-divisional game at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan. Interest in this market stems from the inherent volatility of hockey scoring, team offensive and defensive trends, goaltending matchups, and historical performance between these franchises. Prediction market participants analyze team statistics, player injuries, recent form, and historical head-to-head data to inform their positions on whether the game will be a high-scoring affair or a defensive struggle. The early close condition, where the market expires immediately if the total goals exceed X during the game, adds a layer of real-time excitement and requires participants to consider the timing of their trades.
The San Jose Sharks and Detroit Red Wings have a competitive history dating back to San Jose's entry into the NHL in 1991. While not traditional rivals due to conference alignment, they have met in memorable playoff series, including the 1995 Western Conference Semifinals and the 2007 Western Conference Semifinals. Historically, games between these teams have varied in scoring. For example, in their two meetings during the 2022-2023 season, the total goals were 7 (a 4-3 Detroit win) and 3 (a 2-1 San Jose win). The broader context involves the evolution of NHL scoring. Following a low-scoring 'dead puck era' in the late 1990s and early 2000s, rule changes and stylistic shifts have gradually increased league-wide goal averages. The NHL average for total goals per game (both teams combined) was approximately 6.2 for the 2022-2023 season. This historical league average often serves as a baseline for setting the 'over/under' line (X), with oddsmakers adjusting based on the specific teams' offensive and defensive ratings.
Beyond sports gambling, this prediction market topic matters as a case study in forecasting and collective intelligence. Markets like this aggregate dispersed information from thousands of participants, producing a constantly updating probability on a specific outcome. This price discovery mechanism is studied by economists and data scientists as an alternative to traditional polls or expert analysis. The accuracy of sports prediction markets can offer insights into market efficiency and crowd wisdom. For the teams and the league, high-scoring games are often associated with increased fan engagement, television ratings, and highlight-reel content, which can influence league marketing strategies and franchise valuations. A trend of consistently high or low totals for a specific team can affect perceptions of that team's entertainment value and, by extension, ticket sales and local broadcast revenue.
As of the creation of this market, the game is scheduled for January 16, 2026, during the 2025-2026 NHL regular season. The specific over/under line (X) has been set by the market operator but is subject to movement based on trading activity and new information up until the game begins. Participant analysis will focus on the roster composition, health, and performance trends of both teams as that season progresses. Any major injuries to star players, goaltender confirmations, or significant trades occurring in the weeks leading up to this date will be critical, real-time factors influencing the market price.
A typical total (over/under) line for an NHL game is usually set between 5.5 and 6.5 goals. The most common line is 6.0. Oddsmakers start with the league average (around 6.2) and adjust up or down based on the offensive and defensive ratings of the two specific teams playing.
All goals scored during regulation time, overtime, and in a shootout count toward the final total for the over/under market. A game that goes to overtime or a shootout has more opportunities to score, which can push the total over the line if the game was close in regulation.
The line moves primarily due to betting or trading action that imbalances the market, but also due to new information. Key factors include starting goaltender announcements, significant player injuries or illnesses, recent team performance trends, and even weather or travel conditions that could affect play.
They are not considered primary rivals due to being in different conferences (Pacific vs. Atlantic). However, they have a competitive history with several playoff meetings, most notably in 1995 and 2007, which creates a level of historical tension but not an annual divisional rivalry.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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5 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
San Jose at Detroit: Total Points (Over 3.5 goals scored) | Kalshi | 89% |
San Jose at Detroit: Total Points (Over 4.5 goals scored) | Kalshi | 81% |
San Jose at Detroit: Total Points (Over 5.5 goals scored) | Kalshi | 60% |
San Jose at Detroit: Total Points (Over 6.5 goals scored) | Kalshi | 49% |
San Jose at Detroit: Total Points (Over 7.5 goals scored) | Kalshi | 29% |
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