Canada expels the US Ambassador by December 31?
PM $108.51
1
1
Canada expels the US Ambassador by December 31?
PM $108.51
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, Yes is priced at 33.1% on Polymarket.
Polymarket
- Yes33.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $108.51
Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract asks whether Canada will expel the United States Ambassador by a fixed date. It resolves "Yes" if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and "No" otherwise [1]. The source defines expulsion as "a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata" [1]. It adds that "Revocation of the Ambassador's visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice" [1]. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion is enough for "Yes," even if the Ambassador does not actually leave [1]. The primary resolution source is official information from the Canadian government, though "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1].
The provider lists an end time of 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This corresponds to 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the date in the contract rules. It is the listed close time, not evidence that any particular event is scheduled.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-15T21:00:05Z, and the evidence was retrieved at 2026-10-15T21:51:43Z [1]. These are the times of this saved snapshot. They do not show current conditions. The saved Yes price is 0.1555 and the No price is 0.8445 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence does not include volume or trader counts, so the prices cannot be read as market depth or agreement among participants.
The sample includes the one saved market for this event and is not marked as a partial sample [1]. Because the event has a single binary market, there is no comparison here across platforms or across different events.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not describe any Canadian government action, diplomatic development, or reason for the quoted prices. It does not show whether an expulsion will occur before the listed close time. The prices may have changed since the 21:00 UTC observation on October 15, 2026.
The contract's wording also matters for related actions. A visa revocation or denial of entry does not count alone under these rules [1], so a diplomatic step of that kind may not resolve the contract "Yes." Readers should check the full rule text before treating any related development as qualifying.
References
- Polymarket: Canada expels the US Ambassador by December 31?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers the contract "Canada expels the US Ambassador by December 31?" The contract is listed on Polymarket and is categorized under Politics [1]. Its rules set the conditions for a "Yes" or "No" resolution, so the wording matters more than the headline. Under the rules, the market resolves "Yes" if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves "No" [1]. The listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z, which corresponds to that same deadline in Eastern Time [1]. This is a contract closing time, not an announced government event. The rules define "expel" as a formal action by Canada requiring the Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revoking the Ambassador's visa or denying entry to Canada will not alone satisfy the definition [1]. The rules also state that an announcement of a qualifying expulsion is enough for a "Yes" resolution, even if the Ambassador has not actually left the country [1]. The primary resolution source is official information from the Canadian government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. Traders should read these conditions closely, because a contract resolving on an announcement differs from one that requires physical departure.
Historical Context
The supplied background on diplomatic expulsions is general in scope. A Wikipedia entry on the Russo-Ukrainian War notes that in 2022 many countries declared Russian diplomats and embassy officials personae non gratae, and that many foreign diplomats were formally asked to leave Russia after their accreditation was cancelled [2]. This shows that persona non grata declarations are a recognized diplomatic tool, but it does not address Canada and the United States. The same evidence set includes a Wikipedia entry on Canada and China diplomatic relations, which covers Canada's relations with China and does not bear on the US ambassador [3].
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Canada takes a formal expulsion step against the United States Ambassador to Canada before the deadline. Because the rules count a persona non grata declaration or an announcement of a qualifying expulsion, the contract tracks a formal diplomatic act rather than a general deterioration in relations [1]. Actions that fall short of the definition, such as visa revocation or denial of entry, would not by themselves produce a "Yes" resolution [1]. The market's current price is a snapshot from the trading platform, not a verified probability or an executable quote. Its meaning depends entirely on the resolution rules described above [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as a qualifying expulsion?
Under the rules, expulsion means a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata [1].
Does an announcement count, or does the Ambassador have to leave?
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country [1].
Is revoking the Ambassador's visa enough to resolve Yes?
No. The rules state that revocation of the Ambassador's visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice [1].
Which source decides the outcome?
The primary resolution source is official information from the Canadian government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
When does the window close?
The window runs from market creation to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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