Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

Name: Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?
End: 2026-12-31T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$144.91K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

Vol

$144.91K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $144.91K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $144.91K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

19 markets tracked

Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(19)

Market	Platform	Price
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?	Poly	57%
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026?	Poly	18%
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Switzerland by December 31, 2026?	Poly	7%
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Austria by December 31, 2026?	Poly	4%
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Oman by December 31, 2026?	Poly	4%
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Pakistan by December 31, 2026?	Poly	4%
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the UAE by December 31, 2026?	Poly	4%
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Egypt by December 31, 2026?	Poly	3%
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026?	Poly	3%
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Turkey by December 31, 2026?	Poly	3%
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Italy by December 31, 2026?	Poly	2%
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	Poly	2%
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in another country by December 31, 2026?	Poly	2%
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in another European country by December 31, 2026?	Poly	1%
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Russia by December 31, 2026?	Poly	1%
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in another Middle East/North Africa country by December 31, 2026?	Poly	1%
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Iran by December 31, 2026?	Poly	0%
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Iraq by December 31, 2026?	Poly	0%
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Kazakhstan by December 31, 2026?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

57%

Top Probability

$144.91K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve according to the country in which the next direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran begins by December 31, 2026,

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (80 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks).

This market will resolve according to the country in which the next direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran begins by December 31, 2026,

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $144.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $270.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.54)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $51.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 57.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Oman by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the UAE by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $15.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.2% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Switzerland by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.7% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Austria by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Turkey by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Iran by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $35.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.2% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Egypt by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Italy by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.8% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Iraq by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Kazakhstan by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.8% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Russia by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in another Middle East/North Africa country by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in another European country by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in another country by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics