Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Serbia Parliamentary Election Vote Share Margin of Victory

Name: Serbia Parliamentary Election Vote Share Margin of Victory
End: 2026-10-25T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$9.06K

Events

Markets

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Serbia Parliamentary Election Vote Share Margin of Victory

Vol

$9.06K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $9.06K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $9.06K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will United Serbia win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by a margin of 5-10%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will United Serbia win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by a margin of 5-10%?	Poly	30%
Will United Serbia win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by 10% or more?	Poly	21%
Will the Student List win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by a margin of 5-10%?	Poly	20%
Will United Serbia win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by a margin of 2-5%?	Poly	19%
Will the Student List win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by 10% or more?	Poly	13%
Will the Student List win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by a margin of 2-5%?	Poly	13%
Will the Student List win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by less than 2%?	Poly	8%
Will United Serbia win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by less than 2%?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

30%

Top Probability

$9.06K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two electoral lists in the specified election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place electoral lists. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Serbia Parliamentary Election Vote Share Margin of Victory
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 25, 2026 (14 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two electoral lists in the specified election.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place electoral lists. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two electoral lists in the specified election.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $9.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $21.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.42)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will United Serbia win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by 10% or more?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will United Serbia win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by a margin of 5-10%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will United Serbia win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by a margin of 2-5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $758
  DATA: [Yes: 19.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will United Serbia win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by less than 2%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $772
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Student List win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by less than 2%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $729
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Student List win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by a margin of 2-5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $669
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.1% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Student List win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by a margin of 5-10%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Student List win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by 10% or more?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics