$450.79
1
15
$450.79
1
15
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to "100 Thieves" if 100 Thieves win against Leviatán Esports in the named Valorant match in the VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs, scheduled for January 16 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Leviatán Esports" if Leviatán Esports win against 100 Thieves in the Valorant match. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolutio
Prediction markets are pricing in a narrow advantage for 100 Thieves in this VCT Americas Kickoff playoff match. On Polymarket, the "100 Thieves" contract is trading at 54%, implying the market assigns them a 55% implied probability of victory. This suggests the market sees 100 Thieves as a slight favorite, but the odds are essentially a coin flip, indicating high uncertainty for this best-of-three series. The market currently values a potential Leviatán Esports win at approximately 46%.
Two primary factors are shaping this nearly even pricing. First, the format and stakes of the VCT Americas Kickoff elevate volatility. This is a single-elimination playoff match where teams have had limited official matches in the new season, making recent form harder to gauge and increasing the potential for an upset. Second, the historical and regional context plays a role. Both teams are top-tier contenders in the Americas league, and their head-to-head records in previous seasons have often been competitive. The thin market liquidity, with only $0K in volume, also reflects that this is a speculative, sentiment-driven price rather than one anchored by heavy informed trading.
The most immediate catalyst is the match itself, starting January 16 at 8:00 PM ET. Any last-minute roster news, such as player illness or a strategic substitution, could cause a swift price movement. In-play dynamics during the series will be critical, if the market remains open. A dominant map one victory for either team would likely shift probabilities significantly. Furthermore, the market's current thin liquidity means that even a moderate amount of new money entering with a strong conviction on either side could move the price several percentage points before the match begins.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns a high-stakes Valorant Champions Tour (VCT) Americas Kickoff playoff match between 100 Thieves and Leviatán Esports, scheduled as a best-of-three (BO3) series on January 16, 2025, at 8:00 PM ET. The VCT Americas Kickoff is the inaugural tournament of the 2025 competitive season, serving as the first major event where partnered franchised teams from North America, Latin America, and Brazil compete for seeding in the upcoming international Masters events and crucial VCT circuit points. The outcome of this specific match carries significant weight, as the loser is eliminated from the Kickoff tournament, while the winner advances deeper into the playoffs, gaining momentum and a stronger position for the rest of the season. Interest in this market stems from the intense regional rivalry, the high-profile rosters of both organizations, and the match's role in setting the early narrative for the 2025 VCT season, making it a focal point for esports bettors and fans analyzing team strength after the offseason.
The rivalry between 100 Thieves and Leviatán Esports is rooted in the structure of the VCT Americas league, established in 2023, which merged top teams from North America and Latin America into a single competitive circuit. Their first major encounter was in the group stage of VCT Americas 2023, where Leviatán secured a surprising 2-0 victory, announcing themselves as a regional threat. The dynamic shifted in the 2024 season, particularly during the VCT Americas Kickoff in February 2024, where 100 Thieves defeated Leviatán 2-1 in a group stage match, showcasing improved adaptation to the Latin American team's methodical style. Historically, Leviatán has been a consistent playoff contender from the Latin American region, finishing in the top three of VCT Americas in both 2023 and 2024, and representing the region at international Masters events. 100 Thieves, after a rebuilding phase in 2023, returned to top form in late 2024, winning the Last Chance Qualifier to secure a spot at Valorant Champions 2024. This playoff match in the 2025 Kickoff represents the latest chapter in their cross-regional competition, with both teams aiming to establish early dominance in the new season.
Beyond determining which team advances in a single tournament, this match has substantial implications for the 2025 VCT competitive landscape. A victory solidifies a team's standing within the Americas hierarchy early in the season, impacting seeding for future international events and providing a psychological edge in subsequent regional matches. For the organizations, success in high-profile playoff matches drives fan engagement, sponsor visibility, and merchandise sales, contributing directly to their commercial viability in the growing esports economy. For the players and coaches, performance in this environment can influence contract negotiations, brand value, and legacy within the Valorant scene. The outcome also feeds into the broader narrative of regional strength between North American and Latin American Valorant, a storyline that fuels fan passion and viewership across the entire continent.
As of mid-January 2025, both teams have successfully navigated the group stage of the VCT Americas Kickoff to reach this playoff round. The match is confirmed to proceed as scheduled on January 16. Rosters are locked following the offseason transfer window, with both teams having integrated any new players during the group stage. The current meta, shaped by recent game updates, favors flexible compositions, placing a premium on strategic adaptation. All player visas and travel logistics for the Los Angeles-based event are confirmed, with no public reports of health issues affecting starting rosters.
The match is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM Eastern Time (ET) on January 16, 2025. It will be broadcast live on the official Valorant Champions Tour channels on Twitch and YouTube.
The match will be streamed live on the primary Valorant Esports channels on Twitch (twitch.tv/valorant) and YouTube (youtube.com/valorant). Co-streams by popular content creators may also be available.
The playoff stage is a single-elimination bracket. All matches, including this one, are best-of-three (BO3) series, meaning the first team to win two maps advances to the next round.
Yes, they have faced each other in official VCT Americas matches in both the 2023 and 2024 seasons. Their head-to-head record in those matches currently favors Leviatán.
According to the market rules, if the game is postponed, the market will remain open until the game has been completed. It will only resolve based on the official result of the rescheduled match.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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15 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 54% |
| Poly | 52% |
| Poly | 52% |
| Poly | 52% |
| Poly | 52% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 28% |
| Poly | 28% |
| Poly | 28% |
| Poly | 28% |
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