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Arizona vs San Diego: Home Runs

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Arizona vs San Diego: Home Runs

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

markets · $0.00

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36 markets tracked

Ketel Marte: 1+ home runs?

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Single-Platform Markets(36)

Market	Platform	Price
Ketel Marte: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	20%
Corbin Carroll: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	19%
Manny Machado: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	18%
Jackson Merrill: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	18%
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	18%
Gavin Sheets: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	16%
Max Kepler: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	14%
Luis Campusano: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	13%
Nolan Arenado: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	12%
Xander Bogaerts: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	11%
Jake Cronenworth: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	11%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	10%
Tommy Troy: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	10%
Sung-Mun Song: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	10%
Geraldo Perdomo: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	10%
Gabriel Moreno: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	10%
Miguel Andujar: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	9%
Tim Tawa: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	8%
Ketel Marte: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	3%
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	3%
Corbin Carroll: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	2%
Manny Machado: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	2%
Jackson Merrill: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	2%
Max Kepler: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%
Luis Campusano: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%
Jake Cronenworth: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%
Gavin Sheets: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%
Xander Bogaerts: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%
Tommy Troy: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%
Tim Tawa: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%
Sung-Mun Song: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%
Nolan Arenado: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%
Miguel Andujar: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%
Geraldo Perdomo: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%
Gabriel Moreno: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

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AZ vs SD (Jul 9) If Xander Bogaerts records X home runs in Arizona vs San Diego professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 9, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Player Participation & Settlement Criteria If Xander Bogaerts is scratched or not included in the starting lineup, the market will resolve to the fair market price. If Xander Bogaerts starts the game but does not record a plate appearance, the market will resolve to the fair market price. If Xander Bogaer

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Arizona vs San Diego: Home Runs
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** AZ vs SD (Jul 9)

If Xander Bogaerts records X home runs in Arizona vs San Diego professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 9, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Player Participation & Settlement Criteria If Xander Bogaerts is scratched or not included in the starting lineup, the market will resolve to the fair market price. If Xander Bogaerts starts the game but does not record a plate appearance, the market will resolve to the fair market price. If Xander Bogaer

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Xander Bogaerts records 2+ home runs in Arizona vs San Diego professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 9, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Player Participation & Settlement Criteria
If Xander Bogaerts is scratched or not included in the starting"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Xander Bogaerts: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Xander Bogaerts: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Tommy Troy: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Tommy Troy: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Tim Tawa: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Tim Tawa: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Sung-Mun Song: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Sung-Mun Song: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Nolan Arenado: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Nolan Arenado: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Miguel Andujar: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Miguel Andujar: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Max Kepler: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Max Kepler: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Luis Campusano: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Luis Campusano: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Jake Cronenworth: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Jake Cronenworth: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Geraldo Perdomo: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Geraldo Perdomo: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 23. Gavin Sheets: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 24. Gavin Sheets: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 25. Gabriel Moreno: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 26. Gabriel Moreno: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 27. Ketel Marte: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 28. Ketel Marte: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 29. Corbin Carroll: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 30. Corbin Carroll: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 31. Manny Machado: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 32. Manny Machado: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 33. Jackson Merrill: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 34. Jackson Merrill: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 35. Fernando Tatis Jr.: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 36. Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHISports

Arizona vs San Diego: Home Runs

Volume$0.00

Markets36

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KALSHI

Ketel Marte: 1+ home runs?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 19.5¢No 80.5¢

KALSHIWorld

CLOSING SOON

Ketel Marte: 1+ home runs?

If Ketel Marte records 1+ home runs in Arizona vs San Diego professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 9, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Player Participation & Settlement Criteria If Ketel Marte is scratched or not included in the starting lineup,

KALSHI

Corbin Carroll: 1+ home runs?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 18.5¢No 81.5¢

KALSHIWorld

CLOSING SOON

Corbin Carroll: 1+ home runs?

If Corbin Carroll records 1+ home runs in Arizona vs San Diego professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 9, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Player Participation & Settlement Criteria If Corbin Carroll is scratched or not included in the starting l

KALSHI

Manny Machado: 1+ home runs?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.5¢No 82.5¢

KALSHIWorld

CLOSING SOON

Manny Machado: 1+ home runs?

If Manny Machado records 1+ home runs in Arizona vs San Diego professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 9, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Player Participation & Settlement Criteria If Manny Machado is scratched or not included in the starting lin

KALSHI

Jackson Merrill: 1+ home runs?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.5¢No 82.5¢

KALSHIWorld

CLOSING SOON

Jackson Merrill: 1+ home runs?

If Jackson Merrill records 1+ home runs in Arizona vs San Diego professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 9, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Player Participation & Settlement Criteria If Jackson Merrill is scratched or not included in the starting

KALSHI

Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1+ home runs?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.5¢No 82.5¢

KALSHIWorld

CLOSING SOON

Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1+ home runs?

If Fernando Tatis Jr. records 1+ home runs in Arizona vs San Diego professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 9, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Player Participation & Settlement Criteria If Fernando Tatis Jr. is scratched or not included in the st

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Ketel Marte: 1+ home runs?

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Events (1)

Arizona vs San Diego: Home Runs

Markets (36)

Ketel Marte: 1+ home runs?

Ketel Marte: 1+ home runs?

Corbin Carroll: 1+ home runs?

Corbin Carroll: 1+ home runs?

Manny Machado: 1+ home runs?

Manny Machado: 1+ home runs?

Jackson Merrill: 1+ home runs?

Jackson Merrill: 1+ home runs?

Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1+ home runs?

Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1+ home runs?

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Ketel Marte: 1+ home runs?

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Arizona vs San Diego: Home Runs

Ketel Marte: 1+ home runs?

Ketel Marte: 1+ home runs?

Corbin Carroll: 1+ home runs?

Corbin Carroll: 1+ home runs?

Manny Machado: 1+ home runs?

Manny Machado: 1+ home runs?

Jackson Merrill: 1+ home runs?

Jackson Merrill: 1+ home runs?

Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1+ home runs?

Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1+ home runs?

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