Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Lowest temperature in Buenos Aires on October 12?

Name: Lowest temperature in Buenos Aires on October 12?
End: 2026-10-12T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$70.00

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Lowest temperature in Buenos Aires on October 12?

Vol

$70.00

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $70.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $70.00

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 5°C or below on October 12?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 5°C or below on October 12?	Poly	50%
Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 6°C on October 12?	Poly	34%
Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 7°C on October 12?	Poly	34%
Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on October 12?	Poly	34%
Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on October 12?	Poly	34%
Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on October 12?	Poly	34%
Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on October 12?	Poly	34%
Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on October 12?	Poly	12%
Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on October 12?	Poly	1%
Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on October 12?	Poly	1%
Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C or higher on October 12?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

50%

Top Probability

$70.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the obs

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Lowest temperature in Buenos Aires on October 12?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 12, 2026 (1 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Oct '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez

If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the obs

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Oct '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Te"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $70
* **Total Liquidity:** $574
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.12)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 5°C or below on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 6°C on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 7°C on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $30
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C or higher on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate