Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

Name: Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
End: 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$100.32K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

Vol

$100.32K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $100.32K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $100.32K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

13 markets tracked

Z.ai matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Z.ai matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	Poly	18%
Meta matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	Poly	18%
Microsoft matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	Poly	14%
Google matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	Poly	14%
SpaceXAI matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	Poly	13%
Meituan matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	Poly	5%
ByteDance matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	Poly	5%
DeepSeek matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	Poly	5%
Amazon matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	Poly	3%
Alibaba matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	Poly	3%
Baidu matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	Poly	2%
Moonshot matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	Poly	2%
Mistral matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

18%

Top Probability

$100.32K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On September 12, 2026, Anthropic committed to giving embedded third-party evaluators permanent, ongoing, employee-level access to its AI models and training processes. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces a commitment to grant one or more third-party evaluators ongoing employee-level access to its systems, AI models, and training processes during development by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Arrangements limited to eval

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 1, 2026 (21 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** On September 12, 2026, Anthropic committed to giving embedded third-party evaluators permanent, ongoing, employee-level access to its AI models and training processes. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces a commitment to grant one or more third-party evaluators ongoing employee-level access to its systems, AI models, and training processes during development by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Arrangements limited to eval

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"On September 12, 2026, Anthropic committed to giving embedded third-party evaluators permanent, ongoing, employee-level access to its AI models and training processes. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces a commitment to grant one or more third-party evaluators ongoing"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $100.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $5.4K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 18.54)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Google matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $16.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Alibaba matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $6.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Z.ai matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. SpaceXAI matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $7.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. DeepSeek matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $4.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Moonshot matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $13.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Mistral matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $12.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 8. Meituan matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Microsoft matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $10.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Meta matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $6.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Amazon matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $11.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

### 12. Baidu matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 13. ByteDance matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $4.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech