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Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by...? | PredictPedia

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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports

Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by...?

Name: Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by...?
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$221.43K

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Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by...?

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Polymarket

markets · $221.43K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $221.43K

100%

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1 market tracked

Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?	Poly	7%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, April 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by...?
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 30, 2026 (14 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Following US military strikes on Iran, FIFA has stated it will "monitor developments" regarding Iran's participation in the 2026 World Cup. You can read more about that here: https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/48060986/fifa-monitor-developments-iran-ahead-2026-world-cup.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran is officially disqualified, banned, withdrawn, or otherwise confirmed not to participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup by March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".



## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $19.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $5.9K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.30)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $19.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

13d 16h remaining

Apr 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

7¢

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Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by...?

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Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?

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Events (1)