Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana
Total Volume
$7.25M
Events
1
Markets
35
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana
Vol
$7.25M
|
Events
1
|
Markets
35
$7.25M
1
35
$7.25M
1
35
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market refers to the LoL match between ThunderTalk Gaming and LGD Gaming in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for April 30 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "ThunderTalk Gaming" if ThunderTalk Gaming win the match against LGD Gaming. This market will resolve to "LGD Gaming" if LGD Gaming win the match against ThunderTalk Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, th
Polymarket’s “First Blood in Game 1?” market sits at 100%, which means the market expects the first kill in Game 1 to happen. That is not a prediction. It is a near certainty in professional League of Legends. First blood occurs in over 95% of competitive LPL games. The $7.3 million in volume across 35 related markets suggests heavy action, but this specific contract is essentially a formality.
The main match market between ThunderTalk Gaming and LGD Gaming is not priced here, but the broader LPL Group Nirvana context matters. Both teams are mid-to-bottom tier in the LPL standings. ThunderTalk sits 9th with a 5-8 record. LGD is 11th at 4-9. Neither is a playoff lock. This BO3 matters for seeding and avoiding relegation pressure.
First blood at 100% reflects mechanical reality, not skill disparity. In pro LoL, jungle pathing, lane priority, and early skirmish setups guarantee a kill within the first 5 minutes in almost every game. The only way this market loses is if the match is canceled, delayed beyond 7 days, or ends in a tie. A tie in a BO3 is extremely rare in LPL rules. The market is pricing in near-zero risk of cancellation.
The volume concentration suggests traders are using these micro-markets for hedging or arbitrage rather than making directional bets on team performance. The 100% price is a liquidity trap. You cannot profit, but you can lose if something bizarre happens like a server crash.
The only realistic scenario for a sub-100% resolution is a technical issue. If the match is delayed beyond 7 days from the April 30 scheduled date, the market resolves as canceled. That happened once in 2023 when a DDoS attack forced an LPL postponement. But the probability of that is below 1%. The market is correctly pricing in near-certainty.
This market is Polymarket-only. Kalshi does not list esports micro-markets. The 100% price is not an arbitrage opportunity. It is a reflection of a contract that should not exist as a tradeable asset. Anyone buying at 99 cents is paying for a near-zero risk of loss. That is a negative expected value trade after fees and slippage.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns a best-of-three (BO3) match in the League of Legends Professional League (LPL) Group Nirvana tournament, featuring ThunderTalk Gaming (TT) against LGD Gaming. The LPL is one of the four major regional leagues in competitive League of Legends, based in China, and Group Nirvana is a mid-season tournament format used in 2024 to determine seeding for the Summer Split. The match was initially scheduled for April 30 at 5:00 AM Eastern Time. The market resolves to the winner of the BO3, unless the match is canceled, ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond seven days without a result. Both teams entered this match with contrasting recent performances. ThunderTalk Gaming, historically a lower-tier team in the LPL, had shown signs of improvement in the Spring 2024 season, while LGD Gaming, a more established organization with a history of playoff appearances, was experiencing a rebuilding phase. The LPL Group Nirvana format groups teams into pools based on their Spring Split rankings, and this match was part of the group stage that determines which teams advance to the next phase. Interest in this market comes from esports bettors and LPL fans who track team form, roster changes, and meta shifts. The match outcome also affects LGD's and TT's chances of qualifying for the Summer Split playoffs, making it relevant for competitive standings beyond the immediate result.
ThunderTalk Gaming and LGD Gaming have faced each other multiple times in the LPL since TT's entry in 2020. Historically, LGD held a dominant head-to-head record, winning 8 of the first 10 meetings between 2020 and 2023. However, TT began to close the gap in 2023, winning 2 of their last 4 encounters before this match. Their most recent meeting before April 30 was on February 22, 2024, during the LPL Spring Split regular season, where LGD won 2-1 in a close series. The LPL Group Nirvana tournament was introduced in 2024 as a replacement for the Demacia Cup, which previously served as the pre-season tournament. Group Nirvana uses a group stage format with 16 teams divided into 4 groups, where each team plays a single round-robin BO3 against the other teams in their group. The top 2 teams from each group advance to a double-elimination playoff bracket. This match was part of Group D, which also included Top Esports and Team WE. TT and LGD were both considered underdogs in this group, making their head-to-head result critical for any chance of advancement. The LPL has a history of lower-seeded teams upsetting favorites in BO3 formats, as seen in the 2023 LPL Summer Split where teams like LGD defeated higher-ranked opponents in similar matches.
This match matters for the competitive structure of the LPL 2024 season. The Group Nirvana tournament determines seeding for the Summer Split, which in turn affects qualification for the LPL Regional Finals and the World Championship. A win for either team improves their chances of advancing from Group D, while a loss likely eliminates them from playoff contention. For ThunderTalk Gaming, a victory would mark their first win over LGD in a BO3 since 2023 and provide momentum for the Summer Split. For LGD Gaming, a win maintains their historical edge over TT and keeps their playoff hopes alive. Beyond the immediate match, the outcome influences the LPL power rankings and fan perceptions of both organizations. TT has been building a young roster around ucal and HOYA, while LGD is in a rebuilding phase with haichao as a core piece. The result could impact roster decisions for the Summer Split transfer window. For esports bettors and prediction market participants, this match offers a relatively balanced contest between two teams with similar regular season records, making it a high-volatility market.
The match between ThunderTalk Gaming and LGD Gaming was scheduled for April 30, 2024 at 5:00 AM ET as part of the LPL Group Nirvana group stage. Both teams had completed their Spring Split regular seasons and were preparing for this mid-season tournament. LGD entered the match after a 4-12 Spring Split, while TT came off a 6-10 record. The Group D standings before this match had Top Esports and Team WE as favorites, with TT and LGD expected to compete for the remaining spot. As of the scheduled time, the match proceeded as planned and was not delayed or canceled. The result would determine each team's path in the group stage and their chances of advancing to the playoffs.
The LPL Group Nirvana is a mid-season tournament in the League of Legends Pro League, introduced in 2024 to replace the Demacia Cup. It features 16 LPL teams divided into 4 groups, playing BO3 matches in a single round-robin format. The top 2 teams from each group advance to a double-elimination playoff bracket, which determines seeding for the Summer Split.
Based on Spring 2024 regular season records, ThunderTalk Gaming had a stronger showing with 6 wins compared to LGD's 4 wins. However, LGD held a historical head-to-head advantage. Odds from prediction markets at the time slightly favored LGD due to their past dominance, but TT's recent improvement made it a close contest.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
35 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 100% |
| Poly | 100% |
| Poly | 100% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 10% |
| Poly | 10% |
| Poly | 10% |
| Poly | 10% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/_V7o9D" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana"></iframe>