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Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea before 2027? | PredictPedia

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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea before 2027?

Name: Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea before 2027?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$31.39K

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Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea before 2027?

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Polymarket

markets · $31.39K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $31.39K

100%

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1 market tracked

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea before 2027?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea before 2027?	Poly	5%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea before 2027?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (350 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong Un is removed from power for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Kim Jong Un will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of North Korea within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong Un is removed from power for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Kim Jong Un will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or othe"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $31.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $5.5K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.68)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $31.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

349d 13h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

5¢

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Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea before 2027?

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea before 2027?

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Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea before 2027?

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