GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

OpenAI’s valuation end of September 2026?

Name: OpenAI’s valuation end of September 2026?
End: 2026-09-30T17:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$19.88K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

OpenAI’s valuation end of September 2026?

Vol

$19.88K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $19.88K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $19.88K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $900B and $1.00T at the end of September 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $900B and $1.00T at the end of September 2026?	Poly	71%
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $800B and $900B at the end of September 2026?	Poly	17%
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of September 2026?	Poly	12%
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.20T and $1.30T at the end of September 2026?	Poly	5%
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.10T and $1.20T at the end of September 2026?	Poly	2%
Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of September 2026?	Poly	1%
Will OpenAI’s valuation be less than $600B at the end of September 2026?	Poly	0%
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $600B and $700B at the end of September 2026?	Poly	0%
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $700B and $800B at the end of September 2026?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

71%

Top Probability

$19.88K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for the last trading day of the specified month. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the last tradin

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** OpenAI’s valuation end of September 2026?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 30, 2026 (25 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for the last trading day of the specified month.

If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.

If NPM has not published relevant data for the last tradin

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for the last trading day of the specified month.

If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $19.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $8.6K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.30)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will OpenAI’s valuation be less than $600B at the end of September 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $808
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $600B and $700B at the end of September 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $627
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $700B and $800B at the end of September 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $831
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $800B and $900B at the end of September 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $8.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $900B and $1.00T at the end of September 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 71.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of September 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.10T and $1.20T at the end of September 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.20T and $1.30T at the end of September 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.7% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of September 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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