Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Next Fed rate cut?

Total Volume

$1.02K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Next Fed rate cut?

Vol

$1.02K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.02K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.02K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2028?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2028?	Kalshi	77%
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by June 30, 2028?	Kalshi	63%
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2027?	Kalshi	38%
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by June 30, 2027?	Kalshi	22%
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2026?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

77%

Top Probability

$1.02K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Fed rate cut If the Federal Open Market Committee announces a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate at least once after market Issuance and on or before December 31, X then the market resolves to Yes. The announcement must occur after market issuance and by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. The announcement date controls, regardless of when the reduction takes effect. Announcements outside regularly scheduled FOMC meetings count. Each deadline is evaluated separately. X qual

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next Fed rate cut?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Fed rate cut

If the Federal Open Market Committee announces a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate at least once after market Issuance and on or before December 31, X then the market resolves to Yes. The announcement must occur after market issuance and by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. The announcement date controls, regardless of when the reduction takes effect. Announcements outside regularly scheduled FOMC meetings count. Each deadline is evaluated separately. X qual

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Federal Open Market Committee announces a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate at least once after market Issuance and on or before December 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The announcement must occur after market issuance and by 11:59 PM ET on "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 76.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $569
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $306
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by June 30, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2028): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 62.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by June 30, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $142
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Next Fed rate cut?

Volume$1.02K

Markets5

5 of 5

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KALSHI

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 76.5¢No 23.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2028?

If the Federal Open Market Committee announces a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate at least once after market Issuance and on or before December 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The announcement must occur after market issuance and by 11:59 PM ET on

KALSHI

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by June 30, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 62.5¢No 37.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by June 30, 2028?

If the Federal Open Market Committee announces a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate at least once after market Issuance and on or before June 30, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The announcement must occur after market issuance and by 11:59 PM ET on the

KALSHI

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 38.0¢No 62.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2027?

If the Federal Open Market Committee announces a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate at least once after market Issuance and on or before December 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The announcement must occur after market issuance and by 11:59 PM ET on

KALSHI

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by June 30, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 21.5¢No 78.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by June 30, 2027?

If the Federal Open Market Committee announces a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate at least once after market Issuance and on or before June 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The announcement must occur after market issuance and by 11:59 PM ET on the

KALSHI

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2026?

If the Federal Open Market Committee announces a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate at least once after market Issuance and on or before December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The announcement must occur after market issuance and by 11:59 PM ET on

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/_fpYUa" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Next Fed rate cut?"></iframe>

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Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2028?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Next Fed rate cut?

Markets (5)

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2028?

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2028?

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by June 30, 2028?

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by June 30, 2028?

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2027?

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2027?

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by June 30, 2027?

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by June 30, 2027?

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2026?

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2026?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2028?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Next Fed rate cut?

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2028?

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2028?

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by June 30, 2028?

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by June 30, 2028?

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2027?

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2027?

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by June 30, 2027?

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by June 30, 2027?

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2026?

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2026?

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