Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics
Péter Magyar sextape released by March 31
Total Volume
$34.60K
Events
1
Markets
1
Péter Magyar sextape released by March 31
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
1
markets · $34.60K
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Volume DistributionTotal: $34.60K
100%
Polymarket leads
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
Péter Magyar sextape released by March 31
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 39% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
39%
Top Probability
$34.60K
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any sex tape featuring Peter Magyar is made public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying "sex tapes" must be video footage involving sexual acts depicting the genitals of any individual(s) shown, or otherwise clearly showing Peter Magyar performing sexual acts. The video must be authentic, not animated or AI-altered. The primary resolution source will be publicly released video, though a consensus of credibl
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets currently give roughly a 1 in 3 chance that a sex tape featuring Hungarian political figure Péter Magyar will be made public by the end of March. This means traders collectively see it as unlikely, but not impossible. The market has attracted a modest amount of money for a niche political question, indicating focused interest from a smaller group of participants rather than broad public speculation.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
The 33% probability reflects a mix of political tension and personal risk. Péter Magyar is a central opposition figure in Hungary. He rose to prominence in 2024 by challenging the government of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and has since led a new political party. In Hungary's polarized climate, personal scandals are sometimes used as political weapons.
Traders may be weighing two factors. First, Magyar is a relatively new public figure whose past is still being scrutinized by both media and political opponents. Second, the high-stakes nature of Hungarian politics creates a motive for damaging leaks. However, the probability stays below 50% because no credible evidence or rumors of such a tape currently exist in mainstream media. The prediction is largely a bet on the potential for an unexpected, high-impact scandal.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The deadline for this specific prediction is March 31. More broadly, the European Parliament elections in June 2024 are a major near-term pressure point. Any significant leak intended to damage Magyar's new party would likely aim to disrupt its campaign. Political demonstrations or major investigative reports about Magyar or his associates could also increase market volatility around this prediction.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
Markets are generally effective at aggregating known information, but they struggle with true "black swan" events. For a specific, unpredictable personal scandal like this, the 33% chance is a very rough estimate of risk, not a confident forecast. It is more a measure of perceived political vulnerability than of known facts. In similar past cases involving unsubstantiated personal scandals, markets have often overestimated the probability because they price in motive and opportunity, not just evidence.
Current Market Outlook
Prediction markets assign a 33% probability that a sex tape featuring Hungarian political figure Péter Magyar will be publicly released by March 31, 2026. This price, translating to roughly 1 in 3 odds, indicates the market views the event as plausible but not the expected outcome. With only $34,000 in total volume, liquidity is thin. This suggests the market is driven by speculative interest rather than deep, informed consensus, making prices more volatile to new information.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The 33% price reflects two competing narratives. First, Péter Magyar’s rapid rise as Hungary’s leading opposition figure has made him a prime target for political sabotage. His public divorce from former Justice Minister Judit Varga and his accusations of corruption within the Orbán government have placed him at the center of high-stakes political conflict. In this environment, the release of compromising material is a known political tactic. Second, the market price is suppressed by the absence of any credible leak or rumor regarding such a tape’s existence. The specific, graphic criteria for resolution also set a high bar, requiring authentic video evidence of sexual acts. The current odds balance these real political risks against the lack of tangible evidence.
What Could Change These Odds
The primary catalyst for a major price shift would be the emergence of any credible rumor or leak from Hungarian media or political circles suggesting such footage exists. Given the charged political climate ahead of the 2026 European Parliament elections, a coordinated smear campaign could materialize quickly. Conversely, if Magyar’s political prominence fades or he exits public life, the "No" shares would likely gain value as the incentive to release such material diminishes. The market’s low liquidity means any new headline, credible or not, could cause sharp price movements. The resolution deadline of March 31, 2026, aligns with the EU political calendar, making the preceding months a higher-risk period for opposition figures like Magyar.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.