GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Next Claude Haiku released by...?

Name: Next Claude Haiku released by...?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$9.08K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next Claude Haiku released by...?

Vol

$9.08K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $9.08K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $9.08K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by October 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by October 31, 2026?	Poly	57%
Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by December 31, 2026?	Poly	56%
Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by October 15, 2026?	Poly	46%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

57%

Top Probability

$9.08K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next Claude Haiku released by...?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (118 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, C"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.8K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.93)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $937
  DATA: [Yes: 57.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 55.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by October 15, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech