Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T03:00:06.023Z. This event is archived. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The Kalshi event asks whether average regular gas prices for Kansas, according to AAA, are strictly greater than a threshold X on October 25, 2026. If that condition is met, the market resolves to Yes [1]. Each market in the sample uses a different threshold, from $3.9100 to $3.9850, so the contracts are not interchangeable even though they share one event and one date rule [1].

The event's listed end time is not supplied in the source excerpt [1]. The market records show an end date of 2026-11-01T14:00:00.000Z [1]. This is a listed close time, not the date named in the rule. The evidence does not explain the difference, so readers should check the full contract text before relying on either field.

Reading the snapshot

The data was observed at 2026-10-25T03:00:06.023Z and retrieved at 2026-10-25T10:00:57.321Z, and the record is archived [1]. These are past observations, not live quotes, and they may not reflect current conditions when you read this. Prices are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.

Within the sample, Yes prices do not rise as thresholds rise. Contracts at $3.9100, $3.9150 and $3.9250 are each priced at 0.995 for Yes [1]. The $3.9200 and $3.9300 contracts are at 0.96, and the $3.9350 and $3.9400 contracts are at 0.955 [1]. The $3.9450 contract is at 0.055, and the $3.9500 and $3.9550 contracts are at 0.05 [1]. The $3.9700 contract is at 0.045, and the $3.9850 contract is at 0.005 [1]. The evidence describes these quoted numbers only and does not explain them.

Volume is not supplied in the evidence, so it cannot indicate liquidity or the number of traders.

What remains uncertain

The sample is partial. It includes 12 of 17 markets from this Kalshi event [1]. The five omitted markets are not shown, and their prices are not in the evidence, so no conclusion should be drawn about them. No other provider's event is included, so these prices should not be compared with or averaged against markets on other platforms. Differences in thresholds, wording and listed close times mean that a price difference between contracts is not, by itself, an arbitrage opportunity.

The evidence does not include the AAA gas price figure for October 25, 2026, any resolution outcome, or any explanation for the quoted prices.

References

1. Kalshi: Kansas gas prices tomorrow. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T03:00:06.023Z.