Name: Precipitation in Seattle in April?
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

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Precipitation in Seattle in April? | PredictPedia

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7 markets tracked

Will Seattle have between 2.5 and 3 inches of precipitation in April?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Seattle have between 2.5 and 3 inches of precipitation in April?	Poly	98%
Will Seattle have between 3 and 3.5 inches of precipitation in April?	Poly	0%
Will Seattle have between 4.5 and 5 inches of precipitation in April?	Poly	0%
Will Seattle have less than 2.5 inches of precipitation in April?	Poly	0%
Will Seattle have between 3.5 and 4 inches of precipitation in April?	Poly	0%
Will Seattle have between 4 and 4.5 inches of precipitation in April?	Poly	0%
Will Seattle have more than 5 inches of precipitation in April?	Poly	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Precipitation in Seattle in April?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $77.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $6.2K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 12.58)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Seattle have less than 2.5 inches of precipitation in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $27.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Seattle have between 2.5 and 3 inches of precipitation in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $14.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Seattle have between 3 and 3.5 inches of precipitation in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $21.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Seattle have between 3.5 and 4 inches of precipitation in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Seattle have between 4 and 4.5 inches of precipitation in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Seattle have between 4.5 and 5 inches of precipitation in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Seattle have more than 5 inches of precipitation in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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14¢

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Will Seattle have between 2.5 and 3 inches of precipitation in April?

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Events (1)

Precipitation in Seattle in April?

Markets (7)

Will Seattle have between 2.5 and 3 inches of precipitation in April?

Will Seattle have between 2.5 and 3 inches of precipitation in April?

Will Seattle have between 3 and 3.5 inches of precipitation in April?

Will Seattle have between 3 and 3.5 inches of precipitation in April?

Will Seattle have between 4.5 and 5 inches of precipitation in April?

Will Seattle have between 4.5 and 5 inches of precipitation in April?

Will Seattle have less than 2.5 inches of precipitation in April?

Will Seattle have less than 2.5 inches of precipitation in April?

Will Seattle have between 3.5 and 4 inches of precipitation in April?

Will Seattle have between 3.5 and 4 inches of precipitation in April?

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Will Seattle have between 2.5 and 3 inches of precipitation in April?

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Precipitation in Seattle in April?

Will Seattle have between 2.5 and 3 inches of precipitation in April?

Will Seattle have between 2.5 and 3 inches of precipitation in April?

Will Seattle have between 3 and 3.5 inches of precipitation in April?

Will Seattle have between 3 and 3.5 inches of precipitation in April?

Will Seattle have between 4.5 and 5 inches of precipitation in April?

Will Seattle have between 4.5 and 5 inches of precipitation in April?

Will Seattle have less than 2.5 inches of precipitation in April?

Will Seattle have less than 2.5 inches of precipitation in April?

Will Seattle have between 3.5 and 4 inches of precipitation in April?

Will Seattle have between 3.5 and 4 inches of precipitation in April?

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