Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?

Total Volume

$15.23K

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When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?

Vol

$15.23K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

markets · $15.23K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $15.23K

100%

Kalshi leads

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3 markets tracked

Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2028?

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Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	46%
Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jul 1, 2027?	Kalshi	29%
Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

46%

Top Probability

$15.23K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

Mandatory AI shutdown capabilities If legislation requiring AI kill switches has become law after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. X qualifying federal law must require a technical capability to halt or disable an AI model or system when needed to address safety or security risks or loss of control. This may be implemented through shutdown, suspension, or cutting off the resources or access the system needs to operate. Control may remain with the company; government a

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Mandatory AI shutdown capabilities

If legislation requiring AI kill switches has become law after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. X qualifying federal law must require a technical capability to halt or disable an AI model or system when needed to address safety or security risks or loss of control. This may be implemented through shutdown, suspension, or cutting off the resources or access the system needs to operate. Control may remain with the company; government a

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If legislation requiring AI kill switches has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A qualifying federal law must require a technical capability to halt or disable an AI model or system when needed to address safety or security risks or l"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $15.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2028): Vol $53
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jul 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 7, 2027): Vol $115
  DATA: [Yes: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $15.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?

Volume$15.23K

Markets3

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KALSHI

Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 46.0¢No 54.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2028?

If legislation requiring AI kill switches has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A qualifying federal law must require a technical capability to halt or disable an AI model or system when needed to address safety or security risks or l

KALSHI

Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jul 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 29.0¢No 71.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jul 1, 2027?

If legislation requiring AI kill switches has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A qualifying federal law must require a technical capability to halt or disable an AI model or system when needed to address safety or security risks or l

KALSHI

Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2027?

If legislation requiring AI kill switches has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A qualifying federal law must require a technical capability to halt or disable an AI model or system when needed to address safety or security risks or l

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When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?

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Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2028?

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Events (1)

When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?

Markets (3)

Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2028?

Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2028?

Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jul 1, 2027?

Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jul 1, 2027?

Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2027?

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Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2028?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?

Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2028?

Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2028?

Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jul 1, 2027?

Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jul 1, 2027?

Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2027?

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