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This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. An
Prediction markets currently assign a 62% probability that former Illinois State Senator Daniel Biss will win the 2026 Democratic primary in Illinois' 9th Congressional District. This price, trading at 62¢ on Polymarket, indicates the market views Biss as the clear favorite, but with significant uncertainty remaining. The "Other" category collectively trades around 38%, reflecting a one-in-three chance that a different candidate secures the nomination. Trading volume is thin at approximately $1,000, suggesting this is an early, illiquid market still forming its consensus.
Biss's frontrunner status is driven by his established political profile within this Democratic stronghold. He previously represented parts of the district in the Illinois State Senate and was the Democratic nominee for Governor in 2018, building substantial name recognition. The 9th District, covering Chicago's North Side and northern suburbs, is a deep-blue seat where the Democratic primary is effectively the general election. Biss's perceived advantage stems from this existing network and his progressive policy alignment with the district's electorate, making him a logical early favorite in the absence of a declared, high-profile challenger.
The primary is not until March 17, 2026, leaving ample time for the political landscape to shift. The key catalyst will be candidate filing and the emergence of serious challengers. If a well-funded local elected official, such as a state representative or Chicago alderman from the district, enters the race, Biss's odds would likely fall. Conversely, if he secures early endorsements from major local Democratic organizations or unions, his probability could solidify and rise. The "thin liquidity" warning is critical, current prices are highly sensitive to even minor news and may swing dramatically as more participants trade and new information emerges.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on determining which candidate will secure the Democratic Party nomination for Illinois's 9th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The primary election is scheduled for March 17, 2026, with the winner advancing to contest the general election in November 2026. The market resolves based on the official nominee as determined by consensus of Democratic Party sources, including the Democratic National Committee's website. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, the market resolves to 'Other.' This topic garners significant interest as it represents a key intra-party contest in a reliably Democratic, urban district covering parts of Chicago's North Side and northern suburbs. The outcome will shape the district's representation in Congress and can signal broader ideological trends within the national Democratic Party, particularly concerning progressive versus establishment factions. The race is closely watched by political strategists, donors, and activists as an early indicator of party direction ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Illinois's 9th congressional district has been a Democratic stronghold for decades, with its boundaries evolving through redistricting but consistently encompassing liberal-leaning areas of Chicago's North Side and nearby suburbs like Evanston and Skokie. The district was represented by Sidney Yates, a Democrat, from 1949 to 1999, establishing a long tradition of progressive representation. Jan Schakowsky succeeded Yates in 1999 and has easily won re-election since, typically securing over 70% of the vote in general elections. The last competitive Democratic primary occurred in 1998 when Schakowsky first won the nomination in a crowded field after Yates' retirement. The district's demographics include significant populations of Jewish, Asian American, and LGBTQ+ voters, alongside major academic institutions like Northwestern University. Redistricting following the 2020 census made minor adjustments but maintained the district's solidly Democratic profile, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+21. This history suggests any open primary would be the decisive contest for determining the district's next representative.
The outcome of this primary will determine the political voice for over 700,000 constituents in a district that is a hub for activism, academia, and diverse communities. It matters for national politics because IL-09 reliably sends a progressive Democrat to Congress, and the successor will help define the party's legislative agenda on issues like healthcare, climate change, and foreign policy. The race also serves as a battleground for the ideological soul of the Democratic Party, testing the strength of its progressive left wing against more moderate, establishment forces. Downstream consequences include the potential elevation of a new progressive leader to Congress, shifts in committee assignments and seniority, and the distribution of federal resources to the district. The campaign will also test new electoral strategies and coalition-building in a post-2024 political environment.
As of late 2024, the political landscape is in a preliminary phase. Representative Jan Schakowsky has not formally announced her intentions for 2026. Potential candidates are likely conducting private polling, building fundraising networks, and gauging support, but no major declarations have been made. The Cook County Democratic Party has not begun any official slating process for the 2026 cycle. Political observers are closely monitoring Schakowsky's public schedule and statements for clues about a potential retirement. The first significant developments are expected in early to mid-2025, when candidate recruitment efforts typically intensify ahead of the March 2026 primary.
The Illinois statewide primary election, which includes the Democratic primary for the 9th congressional district, is scheduled for March 17, 2026. This is the date voters will select the Democratic nominee.
The current U.S. Representative for Illinois's 9th congressional district is Democrat Jan Schakowsky. She has held the seat since first being elected in 1998 and is a senior member of the House Energy and Commerce Committee.
Illinois's 9th district includes parts of Chicago's North Side, such as Rogers Park, Edgewater, and Uptown. It also includes the northern suburbs of Evanston, Skokie, Morton Grove, Niles, and parts of Des Plaines and Arlington Heights.
As of late 2024, Representative Jan Schakowsky has not made any public announcement regarding retirement or seeking re-election in 2026. Her decision is the central unknown factor shaping the upcoming primary.
The market resolves to the candidate officially nominated by the Democratic Party to run in the November 2026 general election. The resolution source is a consensus of official Democratic sources, including the Democratic National Committee website. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, it resolves to 'Other.'
Yes, it is considered one of the safest Democratic seats in the nation. The Cook Partisan Voting Index rates it D+21, meaning it performs 21 points more Democratic than the national average. The Democratic primary winner is virtually guaranteed to win the general election.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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4 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Daniel Biss be the Democratic nominee for IL-09? | Poly | 65% |
Will Kate Abughazaleh be the Democratic nominee for IL-09? | Poly | 23% |
Will Laura Fine be the Democratic nominee for IL-09? | Poly | 9% |
Will Jan Schakowsky be the Democratic nominee for IL-09? | Poly | 1% |
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