Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Meta's Watermelon released on...?

Name: Meta's Watermelon released on...?
End: 2026-10-31T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$39.00K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Meta's Watermelon released on...?

Vol

$39.00K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $39.00K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $39.00K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

22 markets tracked

Will there be no Meta Watermelon model release by October 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(22)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be no Meta Watermelon model release by October 31, 2026?	Poly	27%
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 28, 2026?	Poly	9%
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 14, 2026?	Poly	8%
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 20, 2026?	Poly	8%
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 21, 2026?	Poly	8%
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 26, 2026?	Poly	7%
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 29, 2026?	Poly	5%
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 23, 2026?	Poly	5%
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 15, 2026?	Poly	4%
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 11, 2026?	Poly	4%
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 12, 2026?	Poly	4%
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 30, 2026?	Poly	3%
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 22, 2026?	Poly	3%
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 31, 2026?	Poly	3%
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 18, 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 24, 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 13, 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 16, 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 19, 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 25, 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 27, 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 17, 2026?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

27%

Top Probability

$39.00K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon." This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's "Watermelon" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," is made available to the general public. A qual

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Meta's Watermelon released on...?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 31, 2026 (21 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's "Watermelon" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," is made available to the general public.

A qual

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $37.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $25.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.49)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 11, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $229
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 12, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $96
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 13, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $96
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 14, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.6% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 15, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $116
  DATA: [Yes: 4.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.6% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 16, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $98
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 17, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $98
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 18, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 19, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $95
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 20, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 21, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.4% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 22, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $111
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 23, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 23, 2026): Vol $621
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 24, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 24, 2026): Vol $707
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 25, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $98
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 26, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $682
  DATA: [Yes: 7.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.7% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 27, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $91
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 28, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $4.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 29, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 30, 2026): Vol $247
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will there be no Meta Watermelon model release by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $18.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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