Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Turin mayoral election winner?

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Turin mayoral election winner?

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Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes the Democratic Party (PD) win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes the Democratic Party (PD) win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?	Kalshi	74%
Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes Brothers of Italy (FdI) win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?	Kalshi	23%
Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes the Five Star Movement (M5S) but not PD win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?	Kalshi	3%
Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes Futuro Nazionale but not FdI win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

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74%

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About This Event

In 2027 If the candidate of the registered coalition that includes X wins the 2027 Turin mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. The winner is the candidate elected Mayor of Turin, including at a runoff. X candidate's coalition is the set of lists the candidate is linked to in the first-round filing, and a party running alone is a coalition of one. Coalition membership is fixed at that filing; lists linked between rounds do not change it. X coalition that includes more than one of th

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Turin mayoral election winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2027

If the candidate of the registered coalition that includes X wins the 2027 Turin mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. The winner is the candidate elected Mayor of Turin, including at a runoff. X candidate's coalition is the set of lists the candidate is linked to in the first-round filing, and a party running alone is a coalition of one. Coalition membership is fixed at that filing; lists linked between rounds do not change it. X coalition that includes more than one of th

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the candidate of the registered coalition that includes the Democratic Party (PD) wins the 2027 Turin mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The winner is the candidate elected Mayor of Turin, including at a runoff. A candidate's coalition is the set of lists the cand"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes the Democratic Party (PD) win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 12, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 74.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes the Five Star Movement (M5S) but not PD win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 12, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes Futuro Nazionale but not FdI win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 12, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes Brothers of Italy (FdI) win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 12, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Turin mayoral election winner?

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KALSHI

Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes the Democratic Party (PD) win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 74.0¢No 26.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes the Democratic Party (PD) win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

If the candidate of the registered coalition that includes the Democratic Party (PD) wins the 2027 Turin mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The winner is the candidate elected Mayor of Turin, including at a runoff. A candidate's coalition is the set of lists the cand

KALSHI

Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes Brothers of Italy (FdI) win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 23.0¢No 77.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes Brothers of Italy (FdI) win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

If the candidate of the registered coalition that includes Brothers of Italy (FdI) wins the 2027 Turin mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The winner is the candidate elected Mayor of Turin, including at a runoff. A candidate's coalition is the set of lists the candid

KALSHI

Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes the Five Star Movement (M5S) but not PD win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes the Five Star Movement (M5S) but not PD win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

If the candidate of the registered coalition that includes the Five Star Movement (M5S) but not PD wins the 2027 Turin mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The winner is the candidate elected Mayor of Turin, including at a runoff. A candidate's coalition is the set of

KALSHI

Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes Futuro Nazionale but not FdI win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes Futuro Nazionale but not FdI win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

If the candidate of the registered coalition that includes Futuro Nazionale but not FdI wins the 2027 Turin mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The winner is the candidate elected Mayor of Turin, including at a runoff. A candidate's coalition is the set of lists the c

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Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes the Democratic Party (PD) win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

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Events (1)

Turin mayoral election winner?

Markets (4)

Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes the Democratic Party (PD) win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes the Democratic Party (PD) win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes Brothers of Italy (FdI) win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes Brothers of Italy (FdI) win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes the Five Star Movement (M5S) but not PD win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes the Five Star Movement (M5S) but not PD win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes Futuro Nazionale but not FdI win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes Futuro Nazionale but not FdI win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

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Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes the Democratic Party (PD) win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Turin mayoral election winner?

Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes the Democratic Party (PD) win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes the Democratic Party (PD) win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes Brothers of Italy (FdI) win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes Brothers of Italy (FdI) win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes the Five Star Movement (M5S) but not PD win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes the Five Star Movement (M5S) but not PD win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes Futuro Nazionale but not FdI win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes Futuro Nazionale but not FdI win the 2027 Turin mayoral election?

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