Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets currently assign an exceptionally high probability to Donald Trump deporting between 250,000 and 500,000 people in 2025 if he wins the presidency. The leading contract on Polymarket, specifically for this numerical range, is trading at 88 cents, implying an 88% chance. This price indicates the market views this deportation volume as the overwhelming favorite outcome, suggesting it is seen as a core, actionable policy promise rather than mere campaign rhetoric. Other buckets for lower or higher deportation figures show significantly lower probabilities, with the next closest range, 500,000-1 million, trading below 10%.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

Two primary factors are solidifying this market consensus. First, Trump's explicit and repeated campaign commitments form the foundation. He has pledged to execute "the largest domestic deportation operation in American history," specifically citing the model of the 1954 "Operation Wetback" which removed hundreds of thousands. This creates a clear numerical benchmark for markets to price. Second, markets are pricing in the anticipated operational readiness of a potential second Trump administration. Plans reportedly drafted by advisors involve leveraging National Guard troops from Republican-led states and streamlining deportation processes, suggesting a rapid and scalable implementation from day one, making the 250,000-500,000 target appear achievable.

What Could Change These Odds

While the market is highly confident, the odds could shift based on logistical and legal realities post-inauguration. A major catalyst for a downward revision would be immediate and sustained legal injunctions from federal courts challenging the legality of mass deportation tactics, which could slow operations dramatically. Conversely, odds for the higher bracket (500,000-1 million) could increase if early operations proceed with unprecedented speed and fewer legal obstacles than currently anticipated, or if the administration adopts an extremely broad definition of who is subject to removal. The first 100 days of the administration will be critical for observing the operational tempo that will determine the final annual figure.