Current Market Outlook

The Polymarket contract "Will Trump say 'Waste' this week? (March 1)" is trading at 100 cents, or a 100% probability. This price indicates the market has definitively resolved in favor of "Yes." With $4.2 million in volume, this is a highly liquid and decisive market outcome. The resolution period has passed, meaning traders are awaiting final settlement based on verified events from the stated date range of February 23 to March 1, 2026.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

The 100% price reflects near-certainty that Donald Trump used the specific term "waste" in a public statement during the tracking week. This certainty is likely driven by verifiable evidence, such as a confirmed speech, interview, or social media post. The term "waste" is a frequent component of Trump's political rhetoric, often employed to criticize government spending, foreign aid, or investigative resources. For example, he has historically labeled the Mueller investigation and impeachment inquiries as "witch hunts" and a "total waste of time and money." A 2025 analysis by the Brookings Institution noted his continued use of this framing for federal agencies and legal proceedings against him. The market's extreme confidence suggests a clear, unambiguous public utterance was identified.

What Could Change These Odds

At a 100% price, the odds cannot change. The market is effectively closed for trading and awaits administrative resolution. The only remaining variable is the off-chain event verification by Polymarket's resolution source. A discrepancy between market consensus and the resolver's data is the sole risk, but it is minimal given the price and volume. This scenario would require the resolution source to contradict overwhelming public evidence that Trump said "waste," which would be highly unusual and contentious. For all practical purposes, this market is considered settled.