$184.00
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$184.00
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4
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the team that is declared as the AFC East division champion for the 2026 NFL regular season. If multiple teams tie atop the division, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the NFL. If the 2026 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 17, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this division within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source fo
Prediction markets currently give the Buffalo Bills about a 56% chance to win the AFC East in the 2026 NFL season. This means traders collectively see it as a slight favorite, roughly a 4 in 7 chance. The market views the division as highly competitive, however, with no team seen as a dominant lock. The other three teams—the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, and New England Patriots—split the remaining probability, indicating a real belief that any of them could challenge the Bills.
The forecast leans on Buffalo because they have won the AFC East for four consecutive seasons. This recent history gives them the benefit of the doubt in traders' eyes. The team is built around star quarterback Josh Allen, whose consistent high-level play provides a stable foundation that other division rivals have lacked.
However, the odds are not overwhelming because real challenges exist. The Miami Dolphins, with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and a fast offense, have been a persistent contender. The New York Jets' outlook hinges on the health and performance of veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The New England Patriots are in a rebuilding phase with a new coaching staff, making them a longer shot but a potential wild card if their new system clicks faster than expected.
The most important period for shifting these odds will be the 2026 NFL offseason, particularly free agency in March and the NFL Draft in April. Major player acquisitions, trades, or unexpected retirements could change a team's projected strength. Key injuries during the 2025 season, which is still underway, will also shape perceptions of these teams heading into 2026. Finally, watching the performance of the Jets and Patriots in the latter part of the 2025 season will be critical. If either team finishes strong, traders may increase their 2026 championship chances.
Prediction markets on NFL divisions are generally informative but become more speculative the further out they look. A forecast for a season 18 months away is based heavily on current roster assumptions and recent history, which can change dramatically. These markets tend to become significantly more accurate once the offseason moves are complete and training camps begin. For now, the 56% probability for Buffalo is a snapshot of current sentiment, reflecting their status as the incumbent favorite in a volatile division.
The prediction market currently prices a 56% probability that the Buffalo Bills win the 2026 AFC East. This slim majority suggests traders see Buffalo as the tentative favorite, but view the division as highly competitive. The market's thin liquidity, with $0K in volume, means these odds are preliminary and highly sensitive to new information. The New York Jets are the closest contender in current pricing, reflecting a belief that the division race is effectively a two-team contest for the 2026 season.
Buffalo's status as the favorite rests on institutional strength. The Bills have won the AFC East for four consecutive seasons from 2020 to 2023. This historical dominance, built around quarterback Josh Allen, creates a baseline expectation of contention. The primary challenge is seen as the New York Jets, whose odds are buoyed by the expected return of quarterback Aaron Rodgers from his 2023 Achilles injury. The market is betting that a healthy Rodgers transforms the Jets into immediate division contenders, making the 2026 showdown a potential legacy-defining battle for Allen. The Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots are priced as clear longshots, indicating a perceived talent gap.
These odds will shift dramatically based on 2025 NFL season results and subsequent roster moves. A serious injury to Josh Allen or Aaron Rodgers would crater their team's price. Conversely, if the Jets struggle in 2025 or Rodgers shows significant decline, the Bills' probability could surge toward 70% or higher. The 2026 NFL Draft and free agency period in early 2026 will be critical catalysts. If the Patriots or Dolphins secure a franchise quarterback in the 2025 draft, their futures odds could see a sharp, speculative rise. The market will remain volatile until the 2026 season kicks off, with the most significant re-pricing likely after the 2025 season concludes.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns which team will win the American Football Conference (AFC) East division during the 2026 National Football League (NFL) regular season. The AFC East is one of eight divisions in the NFL, comprising the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, and New York Jets. The division champion earns an automatic berth in the NFL playoffs. The market resolves based on the official NFL standings and tie-breaking procedures after the regular season concludes in early January 2027. If no champion is declared by January 17, 2027, the market resolves to 'Other.' Interest in this market stems from the division's recent competitive balance and the high-profile nature of its teams. For nearly two decades, the New England Patriots dominated the AFC East, winning 17 consecutive division titles from 2003 to 2019. Since the departure of quarterback Tom Brady, the division has become more contested. The Buffalo Bills emerged as the primary power, winning the division four consecutive years from 2020 to 2023. The Miami Dolphins have also been a consistent playoff contender. This shift has created uncertainty and renewed rivalry, making the division championship a focal point for fans and analysts. The 2026 season is particularly intriguing due to the development timelines of key quarterbacks and potential roster changes across all four franchises.
The AFC East has experienced two distinct eras of dominance in the modern NFL. From 2001 to 2019, the New England Patriots, led by quarterback Tom Brady and coach Bill Belichick, were the division's defining force. They won 17 of 19 division titles in that span, including 11 consecutive from 2009 to 2019. This period rendered the division championship a foregone conclusion for most seasons. The Buffalo Bills' last division title before the recent run came in 1995. The Dolphins last won in 2008, and the Jets in 2002. This historical context makes the current competitive phase notable. The balance of power began to shift after Brady left New England following the 2019 season. The Buffalo Bills, built around Josh Allen, won the division in 2020, ending the Patriots' streak. They repeated in 2021, 2022, and 2023. However, the margin of victory has narrowed. In 2022, the Dolphins finished just one game behind Buffalo with an 11-6 record. In 2023, Miami again finished 11-6, but Buffalo won the tiebreaker via a better division record. This recent history suggests a trend toward closer races, setting the stage for a potentially volatile 2026 season.
The AFC East champion secures a home playoff game, a significant financial and competitive advantage. For the franchises, division titles drive ticket sales, merchandise revenue, and local media interest. For the cities of Buffalo, Miami, Foxborough, and East Rutherford, a successful team provides economic boosts from game-day spending and enhances civic pride. Beyond economics, the division race has national implications for the NFL playoffs. The AFC East winner is often a top contender for the AFC Championship and the Super Bowl. The division has produced three of the last four AFC champions (Buffalo in 2020 and 2021, New England in 2018). The outcome shapes the playoff bracket, affecting the prospects of every other team in the conference. For prediction market participants, this topic offers a clear, rules-based outcome with a defined resolution date, making it a popular vehicle for speculating on team performance nearly two years in advance.
As of the 2024 offseason, the Buffalo Bills are the defending AFC East champions, having won the title in January 2024. The NFL schedule for the 2026 season has not been released. Rosters are in a state of constant flux due to the draft, free agency, and trades. The most immediate factor influencing the 2026 landscape is the 2024 NFL Draft, where the New England Patriots selected quarterback Drake Maye. His development over the next two seasons is a major variable. The health and performance of veteran quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers (Jets) and Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) throughout 2024 and 2025 will also set the foundation for the 2026 campaign.
The primary tiebreakers are head-to-head record, division record, record against common opponents, and conference record. The full, multi-step procedure is detailed in the NFL's Official Playing Rules, Article XVII.
While exact dates are set closer to the time, the NFL regular season typically begins in early September and concludes in early January. The 2026 season will likely follow this pattern, ending on or around January 3, 2027.
Yes. The Buffalo Bills have won the AFC East every season from 2020 through 2023. The Miami Dolphins finished second in both 2022 and 2023.
According to the market rules, if the 2026 regular season is canceled, postponed beyond January 17, 2027, or no division winner is declared by that date, the market resolves to 'Other.'
The NFL publishes official standings on its website, NFL.com. These standings, updated weekly during the season, are the definitive source for resolving the division champion.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
4 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 54% |
| Poly | 35% |
| Poly | 10% |
| Poly | 6% |
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