This PredictPedia contract is a bracket market on the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana [1]. Each contract asks whether the final total will fall within a specific range, such as between 450,000 and 500,000 votes, or at or above a threshold such as 600,000 [1]. The saved event lists seven such brackets, ranging from a lower bound of less than 350,000 to a top bracket of 600,000 or more [1]. The contract rules define what counts toward the total. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are excluded. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total is used [1]. The rules name the official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election as the primary resolution source. They also allow an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting to be used [1]. The rules also address edge cases. If the reported value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher range bracket [1]. If the results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket [1]. The listed end time for these contracts is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z, as recorded in the provider data [1]. That timestamp is the provider's listed close, which is distinct from the date on which certified results are published and from the resolution itself. The evidence for this article does not include certified 2026 turnout results, a confirmed election calendar beyond the contract timestamps, or any reporting on the 2026 Montana Senate race. Nothing here indicates how many votes were cast, and the contract's listed end time should not be read as a date when results will be announced.

Historical Context

Montana has held recent Senate and gubernatorial elections on the same November cycle as other federal and state contests. The 2018 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2018, concurrently with other Senate, House, and state and local elections [2]. The 2024 Montana gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, alongside the presidential election and other federal races. Incumbent Republican Greg Gianforte won a second term, defeating Democratic nominee Ryan Busse by a 20% margin, larger than his 13% margin in 2020 [3]. These sources describe past contests and do not provide turnout totals for 2026 or any other year, so they should not be used to estimate the current bracket outcomes.

Frequently Asked Questions