Market snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsFinancials

How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

Name: How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
End: 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z

Reported volume

PM $20.3K · K 4.2K contracts

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

Vol

PM $20.3K · K 4.2K contracts

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Provider overview

polymarket

$20.3K

Reported lifetime volume

kalshi

4.2K contracts

Reported lifetime volume

Reviewed equivalent pairs

No eligible price comparison

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Price ChartContract price history

11 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.42% by Oct 30, 2026?

No data available

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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with usable prices. You can inspect related contracts, but their prices do not measure the same outcome.

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Saved matching review

Related contracts: 3 pairs

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

Review notes

Saved notes may describe earlier contract terms. Use the pair status above and current provider rules.

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 3 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-01T05:05:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $20.3K · K 4.2K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Reviewed equivalent pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC

About This Event

By Oct 30, 2026 If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is below X on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 30-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
Source snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): PM $20.3K · K 4.2K contracts
Coverage: 14 of 14 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.35% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX30YRDIRLM-26OCT30L-T5.35; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx30yrdirlm-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 938.59 contracts
Outcome Yes: 46.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 53.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.35% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 30-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.35% in October?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5194832; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-30-year-treasury-yield-dip-below-5pt35-in-october
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.7K
Outcome Yes: 53.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 47.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Contract: Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.40% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX30YRDIRLM-26OCT30L-T5.40; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx30yrdirlm-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 953.11 contracts
Outcome Yes: 72.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 28.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.40% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 30-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.40% in October?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5194831; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-30-year-treasury-yield-dip-below-5pt40-in-october
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.8K
Outcome Yes: 69.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 31.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Contract: Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.43% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX30YRDIRLM-26OCT30L-T5.43; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx30yrdirlm-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 328.01 contracts
Outcome Yes: 73.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 26.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.43% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 30-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.43% in October?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5194830; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-30-year-treasury-yield-dip-below-5pt43-in-october
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.1K
Outcome Yes: 79.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 21.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Contract: Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.42% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX30YRDIRLM-26OCT30L-T5.42; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx30yrdirlm-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 77 contracts
Outcome Yes: 70.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 29.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.42% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 30-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.41% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX30YRDIRLM-26OCT30L-T5.41; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx30yrdirlm-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 415 contracts
Outcome Yes: 68.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 32.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.41% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 30-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.39% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX30YRDIRLM-26OCT30L-T5.39; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx30yrdirlm-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 862.9 contracts
Outcome Yes: 62.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 38.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.39% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 30-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.38% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX30YRDIRLM-26OCT30L-T5.38; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx30yrdirlm-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 277.38 contracts
Outcome Yes: 66.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 34.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.38% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 30-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.37% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX30YRDIRLM-26OCT30L-T5.37; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx30yrdirlm-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 152.36 contracts
Outcome Yes: 63.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 37.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.37% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 30-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.36% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX30YRDIRLM-26OCT30L-T5.36; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx30yrdirlm-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 170.12 contracts
Outcome Yes: 57.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 43.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.36% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 30-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.30% in October?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5194833; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-30-year-treasury-yield-dip-below-5pt30-in-october
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.3K
Outcome Yes: 18.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 81.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Contract: Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.25% in October?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5194834; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-30-year-treasury-yield-dip-below-5pt25-in-october
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.0K
Outcome Yes: 13.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 87.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Saved cross-platform review:
polymarket-5194832 / kalshi-KX30YRDIRLM-26OCT30L-T5.35: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.35% by Oct 30, 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-01T05:05:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.35% in October?"; listed deadline 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 17, 2026, 1:49 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 3 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-01T05:05:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5194830 / kalshi-KX30YRDIRLM-26OCT30L-T5.43: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.43% by Oct 30, 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-01T05:05:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.43% in October?"; listed deadline 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 17, 2026, 1:49 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 3 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-01T05:05:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5194831 / kalshi-KX30YRDIRLM-26OCT30L-T5.40: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.40% by Oct 30, 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-01T05:05:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.40% in October?"; listed deadline 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 17, 2026, 1:49 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 3 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-01T05:05:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIFinancials

How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

Volume$4.17K

Markets9

POLYMARKETEconomy

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Volume$20.25K

Markets5

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Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.43% by Oct 30, 2026?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.43% by Oct 30, 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-01T05:05:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.43% in October?"; listed deadline 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 01:49:47 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.43% by Oct 30, 2026?

Yes: 73.5¢
No: 26.5¢

polymarket

Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.43% in October?

Yes: 79.0¢
No: 21.0¢

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.40% by Oct 30, 2026?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.40% by Oct 30, 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-11-01T05:05:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.40% in October?"; listed deadline 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 01:49:47 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.40% by Oct 30, 2026?

Yes: 72.0¢
No: 28.0¢

polymarket

Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.40% in October?

Yes: 69.0¢
No: 31.0¢

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.42% by Oct 30, 2026?

kalshi

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.42% by Oct 30, 2026?

Yes: 70.5¢
No: 29.5¢

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.41% by Oct 30, 2026?

kalshi

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.41% by Oct 30, 2026?

Yes: 68.0¢
No: 32.0¢

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.38% by Oct 30, 2026?

kalshi

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.38% by Oct 30, 2026?

Yes: 66.0¢
No: 34.0¢

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Nov 01, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

Reviewed equivalent pairs

No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

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Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.42% by Oct 30, 2026?

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How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?

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Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.43% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.40% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.42% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.41% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.38% by Oct 30, 2026?

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kalshi

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Price ChartContract price history

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.42% by Oct 30, 2026?

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Saved matching review

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.43% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.40% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.42% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.41% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.38% by Oct 30, 2026?

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