Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

S&P price on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Total Volume

$984.96

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

S&P price on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Vol

$984.96

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $984.96

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $984.96

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

60 markets tracked

Will the S&P 500 be above 7659.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(60)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the S&P 500 be above 7659.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	100%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7654.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	100%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7649.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	100%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7644.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	100%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7639.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	100%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7634.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	100%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7629.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	100%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7624.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	100%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7619.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	100%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7614.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	100%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7609.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	100%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7604.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	100%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7599.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	100%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7724.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	99%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7719.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	99%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7714.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	99%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7709.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	99%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7704.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	99%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7699.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	99%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7694.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	99%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7689.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	99%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7684.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	99%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7679.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	99%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7674.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	99%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7669.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	99%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7664.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	99%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7734.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	99%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7729.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	99%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7739.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	98%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7749.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	98%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7744.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	98%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7754.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	97%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7759.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	96%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7764.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	95%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7769.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	94%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7774.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	92%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7779.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	91%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7784.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	89%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7789.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	86%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7794.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	84%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7799.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	80%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7804.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	77%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7809.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	72%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7814.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	68%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7819.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	62%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7824.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	57%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7829.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	51%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7834.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	44%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7839.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	38%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7844.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	32%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7849.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	27%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7854.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	23%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7859.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	19%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7864.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	15%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7869.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	12%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7874.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	8%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7879.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	8%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7884.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	6%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7889.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	4%
Will the S&P 500 be above 7894.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$984.96

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT If the S&P 500 index value on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close on October 12, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after October 12, 2026. Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets. See the rules for more information.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** S&P price on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
**Category:** Financials | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT

If the S&P 500 index value on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close on October 12, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after October 12, 2026. Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets. See the rules for more information.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the S&P 500 index value on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT is above 7894.9999, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close on October 12, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after October 12, 2026.

Pursuant to the Kalshi Ru"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $985
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the S&P 500 be above 7894.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the S&P 500 be above 7889.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the S&P 500 be above 7884.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the S&P 500 be above 7879.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $48
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the S&P 500 be above 7874.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $88
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the S&P 500 be above 7869.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the S&P 500 be above 7864.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $41
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the S&P 500 be above 7859.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $46
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the S&P 500 be above 7854.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $41
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the S&P 500 be above 7849.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $69
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the S&P 500 be above 7844.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $48
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the S&P 500 be above 7839.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $41
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the S&P 500 be above 7834.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $46
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the S&P 500 be above 7829.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $48
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the S&P 500 be above 7824.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $163
  DATA: [Yes: 57.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the S&P 500 be above 7819.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $23
  DATA: [Yes: 61.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the S&P 500 be above 7814.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $3
  DATA: [Yes: 68.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the S&P 500 be above 7809.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 72.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the S&P 500 be above 7804.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 77.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will the S&P 500 be above 7799.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $70
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will the S&P 500 be above 7794.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $18
  DATA: [Yes: 84.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will the S&P 500 be above 7789.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 86.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will the S&P 500 be above 7784.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 89.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.0% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will the S&P 500 be above 7779.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 90.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.5% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will the S&P 500 be above 7774.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $89
  DATA: [Yes: 92.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.0% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will the S&P 500 be above 7769.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 93.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.5% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will the S&P 500 be above 7764.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $6
  DATA: [Yes: 95.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.0% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will the S&P 500 be above 7759.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.0% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will the S&P 500 be above 7754.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 30. Will the S&P 500 be above 7749.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 31. Will the S&P 500 be above 7744.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 32. Will the S&P 500 be above 7739.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 98.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.0% (0.0%)]

### 33. Will the S&P 500 be above 7734.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 98.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.5% (0.0%)]

### 34. Will the S&P 500 be above 7729.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 98.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.5% (0.0%)]

### 35. Will the S&P 500 be above 7724.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.0% (0.0%)]

### 36. Will the S&P 500 be above 7719.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.0% (0.0%)]

### 37. Will the S&P 500 be above 7714.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.0% (0.0%)]

### 38. Will the S&P 500 be above 7709.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.0% (0.0%)]

### 39. Will the S&P 500 be above 7704.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.0% (0.0%)]

### 40. Will the S&P 500 be above 7699.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.0% (0.0%)]

### 41. Will the S&P 500 be above 7694.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.0% (0.0%)]

### 42. Will the S&P 500 be above 7689.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.0% (0.0%)]

### 43. Will the S&P 500 be above 7684.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.0% (0.0%)]

### 44. Will the S&P 500 be above 7679.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.0% (0.0%)]

### 45. Will the S&P 500 be above 7674.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.0% (0.0%)]

### 46. Will the S&P 500 be above 7669.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.0% (0.0%)]

### 47. Will the S&P 500 be above 7664.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.0% (0.0%)]

### 48. Will the S&P 500 be above 7659.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 49. Will the S&P 500 be above 7654.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 50. Will the S&P 500 be above 7649.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 51. Will the S&P 500 be above 7644.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 52. Will the S&P 500 be above 7639.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 53. Will the S&P 500 be above 7634.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 54. Will the S&P 500 be above 7629.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 55. Will the S&P 500 be above 7624.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 56. Will the S&P 500 be above 7619.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 57. Will the S&P 500 be above 7614.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 58. Will the S&P 500 be above 7609.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 59. Will the S&P 500 be above 7604.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 60. Will the S&P 500 be above 7599.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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KALSHIFinancials

S&P price on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

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KALSHI

Will the S&P 500 be above 7659.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the S&P 500 be above 7659.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

If the S&P 500 index value on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT is above 7659.9999, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close on October 12, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after October 12, 2026. Pursuant to the Kalshi Ru

KALSHI

Will the S&P 500 be above 7654.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the S&P 500 be above 7654.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

If the S&P 500 index value on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT is above 7654.9999, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close on October 12, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after October 12, 2026. Pursuant to the Kalshi Ru

KALSHI

Will the S&P 500 be above 7649.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the S&P 500 be above 7649.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

If the S&P 500 index value on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT is above 7649.9999, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close on October 12, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after October 12, 2026. Pursuant to the Kalshi Ru

KALSHI

Will the S&P 500 be above 7644.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the S&P 500 be above 7644.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

If the S&P 500 index value on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT is above 7644.9999, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close on October 12, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after October 12, 2026. Pursuant to the Kalshi Ru

KALSHI

Will the S&P 500 be above 7639.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the S&P 500 be above 7639.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

If the S&P 500 index value on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT is above 7639.9999, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will close on October 12, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after October 12, 2026. Pursuant to the Kalshi Ru

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S&P price on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

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Will the S&P 500 be above 7659.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

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S&P price on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Markets (60)

Will the S&P 500 be above 7659.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7659.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7654.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7654.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7649.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7649.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7644.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7644.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7639.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7639.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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Will the S&P 500 be above 7659.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

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S&P price on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7659.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7659.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7654.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7654.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7649.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7649.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7644.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7644.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7639.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Will the S&P 500 be above 7639.9999 on Oct 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

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