Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US trade deficit for 2030

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US trade deficit for 2030

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Polymarket

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8 markets tracked

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $700 billion?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $700 billion?	Kalshi	97%
Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $600 billion?	Kalshi	97%
Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $500 billion?	Kalshi	97%
Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $800 billion?	Kalshi	94%
Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $900 billion?	Kalshi	81%
Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $1.0 trillion?	Kalshi	61%
Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $1.1 trillion?	Kalshi	42%
Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $1.2 trillion?	Kalshi	32%

AI Analysis

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97%

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$0.00

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About This Event

2030 If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2030 is strictly above X billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis. It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data. Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit. For example, an a

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US trade deficit for 2030
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2030

If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2030 is strictly above X billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis. It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data. Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit. For example, an a

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2030 is strictly above $900 billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis. It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods r"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $900 billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 10, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 81.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $800 billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 10, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $700 billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 10, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $600 billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 10, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $500 billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 10, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $1.2 trillion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 10, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 32.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $1.1 trillion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 10, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $1.0 trillion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 10, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 61.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US trade deficit for 2030

Volume$0.00

Markets8

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KALSHI

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $700 billion?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.0¢No 3.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $700 billion?

If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2030 is strictly above $700 billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis. It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods r

KALSHI

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $600 billion?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.0¢No 3.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $600 billion?

If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2030 is strictly above $600 billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis. It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods r

KALSHI

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $500 billion?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.0¢No 3.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $500 billion?

If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2030 is strictly above $500 billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis. It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods r

KALSHI

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $800 billion?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.0¢No 6.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $800 billion?

If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2030 is strictly above $800 billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis. It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods r

KALSHI

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $900 billion?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 81.0¢No 19.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $900 billion?

If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2030 is strictly above $900 billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis. It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods r

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Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $700 billion?

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Events (1)

US trade deficit for 2030

Markets (8)

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $700 billion?

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $700 billion?

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $600 billion?

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $600 billion?

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $500 billion?

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $500 billion?

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $800 billion?

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $800 billion?

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $900 billion?

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $900 billion?

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Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $700 billion?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US trade deficit for 2030

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $700 billion?

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $700 billion?

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $600 billion?

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $600 billion?

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $500 billion?

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $500 billion?

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $800 billion?

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $800 billion?

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $900 billion?

Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $900 billion?

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