GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

Name: SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
End: 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$445.09K

Events

Markets

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SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

Vol

$445.09K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $445.09K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $445.09K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31?	Poly	97%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?	Poly	93%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve a successful splashdown?	Poly	85%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?	Poly	83%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 26?	Poly	72%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19?	Poly	34%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?	Poly	17%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster?	Poly	6%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$445.09K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jul 1, 2027 (299 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtub"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $375.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $46.3K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 8.11)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $22.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 93.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $862
  DATA: [Yes: 96.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $26.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 83.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve a successful splashdown?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 85.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $13.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $276.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 16, 2026): Vol $30.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $848
  DATA: [Yes: 34.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 26?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 27, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 71.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14.

Volume$445.09K

Markets9

9 of 9

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POLYMARKET

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 96.7¢No 3.3¢

POLYMARKETTech

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31?

If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.

POLYMARKET

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 93.0¢No 7.0¢

POLYMARKETTech

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?

If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtub

POLYMARKET

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve a successful splashdown?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 85.0¢No 15.0¢

POLYMARKETTech

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve a successful splashdown?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Starship upper stage for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If SpaceX attempts to catch the Starship upper stage using the Orbital Launch Tower’s chopsticks ins

POLYMARKET

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 83.0¢No 17.0¢

POLYMARKETTech

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the booster for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a v

POLYMARKET

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 26?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 71.5¢No 28.5¢

POLYMARKETTech

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 26?

If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtub

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Next Market Closes

298d 4h remaining

Jul 01, 2027 3:59 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

54¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/_wscSI" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14"></iframe>

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SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

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Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

Markets (9)

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve a successful splashdown?

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve a successful splashdown?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 26?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 26?

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Discussion

Next Market Closes

Market Insights

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Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve a successful splashdown?

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve a successful splashdown?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 26?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 26?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Next Market Closes

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