Name: Highest temperature in Wellington on April 19?
End: 2026-04-19T12:00:00.000Z

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Highest temperature in Wellington on April 19? | PredictPedia

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Polymarket

markets · $1.27K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.27K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 19?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 19?	Poly	33%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 19?	Poly	31%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 19?	Poly	20%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 19?	Poly	13%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 19?	Poly	6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 19?	Poly	4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 19?	Poly	3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April 19?	Poly	2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 19?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 19?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C or below on April 19?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

33%

Top Probability

$1.27K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle bet

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest temperature in Wellington on April 19?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 19, 2026 (2 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.

To toggle bet

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for al"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $16.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.08)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C or below on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $210
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $202
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $229
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $67
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $30
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $23
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $19
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $21
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $355
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $50
  DATA: [Yes: 3.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $87
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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