Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US new home · Median sales price in September

Total Volume

$935.63

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

US new home · Median sales price in September

Vol

$935.63

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $935.63

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $935.63

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

12 markets tracked

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $365,000?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $365,000?	Kalshi	98%
Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $370,000?	Kalshi	94%
Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $375,000?	Kalshi	90%
Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $380,000?	Kalshi	83%
Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $385,000?	Kalshi	73%
Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $390,000?	Kalshi	64%
Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $395,000?	Kalshi	50%
Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $400,000?	Kalshi	37%
Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $405,000?	Kalshi	25%
Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $410,000?	Kalshi	19%
Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $415,000?	Kalshi	10%
Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $420,000?	Kalshi	7%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

98%

Top Probability

$935.63

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

September 2026 If the Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States, MSPNHSUS, for September 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the September 2026 observation of Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States, MSPNHSUS, stated in U.S. dollars, not seasonally adjusted. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US new home · Median sales price in September
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** September 2026

If the Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States, MSPNHSUS, for September 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the September 2026 observation of Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States, MSPNHSUS, stated in U.S. dollars, not seasonally adjusted. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 is above $420,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the September 2026 observation of Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in th"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $936
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $420,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $207
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $415,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $95
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $410,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $56
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $405,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $268
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $400,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $43
  DATA: [Yes: 37.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $395,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $133
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $390,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $87
  DATA: [Yes: 63.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $385,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 73.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $380,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $34
  DATA: [Yes: 83.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $375,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 90.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $370,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $365,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 98.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US new home · Median sales price in September

Volume$935.63

Markets12

12 of 12

Sort:

KALSHI

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $365,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.0¢No 2.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $365,000?

If the Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 is above $365,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the September 2026 observation of Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in th

KALSHI

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $370,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.0¢No 6.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $370,000?

If the Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 is above $370,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the September 2026 observation of Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in th

KALSHI

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $375,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 90.0¢No 10.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $375,000?

If the Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 is above $375,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the September 2026 observation of Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in th

KALSHI

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $380,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 83.0¢No 17.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $380,000?

If the Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 is above $380,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the September 2026 observation of Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in th

KALSHI

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $385,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 73.0¢No 27.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $385,000?

If the Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 is above $385,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the September 2026 observation of Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in th

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

54¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/a4lIbJ" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="US new home · Median sales price in September"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

US new home · Median sales price in September

US new home · Median sales price in September

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $365,000?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

US new home · Median sales price in September

Markets (12)

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $365,000?

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $365,000?

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $370,000?

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $370,000?

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $375,000?

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $375,000?

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $380,000?

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $380,000?

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $385,000?

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $385,000?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $365,000?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US new home · Median sales price in September

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $365,000?

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $365,000?

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $370,000?

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $370,000?

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $375,000?

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $375,000?

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $380,000?

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $380,000?

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $385,000?

Will Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for September 2026 be above $385,000?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget