Will Trump abolish the Department of Education? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will Trump abolish the Department of Education?

Total Volume

$133.65K

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Markets

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Will Trump abolish the Department of Education?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $133.65K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $133.65K

100%

Kalshi leads

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1 market tracked

Will the Department of Education be eliminated before Jan 20, 2029?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Department of Education be eliminated before Jan 20, 2029?	Kalshi	23%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

23%

Top Probability

$133.65K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

During Trump's term If the Department of Education is sunsetted or eliminated entirely before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department that is no longer titled the “Department of Education”, then the market will resolve to Yes This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Trump abolish the Department of Education?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** During Trump's term

If the Department of Education is sunsetted or eliminated entirely before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department that is no longer titled the “Department of Education”, then the market will resolve to Yes This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Department of Education is sunsetted or eliminated entirely before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If the Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department that is no longer titled the “Department of Education”, t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $133.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.31M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.04)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Department of Education be eliminated before Jan 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $133.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

23¢

Kalshi

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/a5-HTg" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Trump abolish the Department of Education?"></iframe>

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Will Trump abolish the Department of Education?

Will Trump abolish the Department of Education?

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Will the Department of Education be eliminated before Jan 20, 2029?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)