Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Name: Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$33.91K

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Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

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Polymarket

markets · $33.91K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $33.91K

100%

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1 market tracked

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Poly	49%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

49%

Top Probability

$33.91K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold (or is publicly reported to be unable to perform the duties of) the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, which is widely regarded as

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (166 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

For the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold (or is publicly reported to be unable to perform the duties of) the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, which is widely regarded as 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

For the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.54)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 48.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

165d 13h remaining

Jun 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

49¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/a69LWt" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?"></iframe>

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Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

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Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)