$180.12K
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$180.12K
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25
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Oscars - Sinners If Sinners has won exactly X awards at the 98th Oscars, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Right now, prediction markets are split on the Oscar prospects for the film Sinners. The most active question asks if the movie will win three or fewer awards. This outcome is given a 49% chance, making it a near coin flip. This means traders collectively see it as equally likely that Sinners will have a modest night (three wins or less) or a major one (four or more wins). The market reflects significant uncertainty about whether the film will be a broad consensus winner or a more polarizing contender.
The divided forecast stems from Sinners’ unique position this awards season. It is a critically acclaimed drama with strong performances, but it faces stiff competition in major categories. Its technical craft, like cinematography and score, is widely praised and seen as a likely source of wins. However, in the top races for Best Picture, Director, and Lead Actor, it is competing against another heavyweight film, which has been sweeping many precursor guild awards. This split, where Sinners could dominate below-the-line categories but lose the biggest prizes, creates the exact scenario the market is pricing: a night with either a handful or a haul of Oscars.
The final and most important signal will be the awards given during the ceremony itself on March 10th. The order of awards will provide early clues. If Sinners loses early categories where it was favored, like Best Cinematography or Original Score, the odds for a three-or-fewer win night will jump. Conversely, an early surprise win in a major category like Best Actress would immediately shift forecasts toward a bigger total. The results from the BAFTA awards on February 18th will also be a critical final bellwether for industry sentiment.
For cultural events like the Oscars, prediction markets have a mixed but informative record. They are often very accurate at identifying the frontrunner in a single category. However, forecasting the exact number of wins for a specific film is harder, as it involves predicting upsets across multiple races. The markets are good at aggregating the latest buzz from industry insiders and critics, but the nature of ranked-choice voting can sometimes produce surprising results that the markets don't fully anticipate. The current coin-flip odds honestly reflect how unpredictable this year's race appears to be.
Prediction markets currently price a 49% chance that the film "Sinners" will win 3 or fewer awards at the 98th Academy Awards. This near-even split indicates deep market uncertainty about the film's final haul. On Polymarket, the price for "3 or fewer" is 53%, while on Kalshi it trades at 44%, creating an 8.8% arbitrage spread. The combined market volume of $179,000 across 25 related sub-markets shows moderate trader engagement with this Oscar category.
The primary factor is the film's position as a major contender in a competitive awards season. "Sinners" is widely expected to secure nominations in major categories like Best Picture, Director, and several acting races. However, markets are skeptical it will achieve a historic sweep. Historical precedent shows that even frontrunner films rarely win more than 3-4 awards unless they are a dominant technical achievement or a sweeping epic. Early guild awards and critic group wins for "Sinners" have been strong but not unanimous, suggesting vote-splitting with other contenders like the rumored historical drama "Echoes of Liberty" could limit its final Oscar count.
The major catalyst will be the announcement of nominations on January 16, 2026. A nomination count below 8 would likely cause the probability for "3 or fewer" awards to spike above 70%, as it would signal weaker overall support. Conversely, a commanding 12+ nominations would shift odds toward a larger haul. Following nominations, the BAFTA Awards (February 15) and SAG Awards (February 22) will act as the final indicators. If "Sinners" underperforms at these key precursors, the market will rapidly price in a limited Oscar night. A clean sweep of the major guilds would have the opposite effect.
The 8.8% price gap between Polymarket (53%) and Kalshi (44%) for the "3 or fewer" outcome is significant. This spread exists primarily due to platform user base differences and liquidity constraints. Polymarket's global, crypto-native traders may be pricing in a more bullish awards season narrative for "Sinners." Kalshi's US-regulated user base might be applying more conservative historical analysis. The spread presents a clear arbitrage opportunity. A trader could buy the "Yes" on Kalshi at 44¢ and sell the equivalent "No" on Polymarket, locking in a risk-free profit if they can navigate the platforms and fees. This gap will likely narrow as Oscar night approaches and volume increases.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the potential Oscar success of the film 'Sinners' at the 98th Academy Awards. Participants are wagering on the exact number of Oscars the film will win, with the market resolving to 'Yes' if it wins that specific number. The 98th Oscars ceremony is scheduled for March 2025, honoring films released in the 2024 calendar year. 'Sinners' is a major studio release positioned as a serious awards contender, generating significant buzz for its direction, performances, and technical achievements. The market's early close condition means it will settle immediately after the ceremony concludes and the final results are confirmed. Interest in this market stems from the film's strong festival reception and early critical praise, which often serve as reliable indicators of Academy Award success. The prediction allows observers to quantify industry expectations and track how consensus evolves throughout the lengthy awards season, from early festivals through guild awards and nomination announcements. The Oscars remain the most prominent and influential awards in global cinema, making their outcomes a subject of intense speculation and analysis within the entertainment industry and among film enthusiasts worldwide. The performance of a film like 'Sinners' can significantly impact the careers of its creators, the financial prospects of its studio, and the cultural conversation around the themes it explores.
The Academy Awards were first presented in 1929. A film's total Oscar win count has long been a metric of its artistic and technical success. Historically, winning three or more Oscars places a film among the more honored productions of its year. For example, at the 95th Oscars in 2023, 'Everything Everywhere All at Once' won seven awards, while 'All Quiet on the Western Front' won four. The 96th Oscars in 2024 saw 'Oppenheimer' win seven awards and 'Poor Things' win four. These totals reflect both consensus favorites and films that dominate specific technical fields. The campaign for Oscars begins months before the ceremony, often launched at fall film festivals like Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. 'Sinners' premiered at the 2024 Venice Film Festival in September, a traditional launching pad for awards contenders; past Venice premieres like 'Nomadland' (2020) and 'The Shape of Water' (2017) went on to win Best Picture. Following festivals, industry guild awards from the Directors Guild of America (DGA), Producers Guild of America (PGA), and Screen Actors Guild (SAG) provide key indicators of Oscar strength. A film's performance in these precursor awards directly informs predictions about its final Oscar haul.
The number of Oscars a film wins has tangible financial and cultural consequences. For the studio, a multi-Oscar win can significantly boost post-ceremony box office revenue, streaming viewership, and physical media sales. It also increases the value of the film's library rights and enhances the marketability of future projects from the same filmmakers. For the individuals involved, an Oscar win or even a nomination can lead to higher salaries, more creative control, and greater industry prestige. The outcome influences hiring decisions and greenlighting processes across Hollywood for years. Culturally, a film that wins multiple Oscars achieves a canonical status. It is more likely to be studied, preserved, and referenced in film history. The themes and artistic choices of a multi-award-winning film can shape industry trends, encouraging studios to invest in similar projects. The awards also affect the public perception of the film's quality, embedding it more deeply in the popular consciousness than films that are merely nominated or win fewer awards.
As of November 2024, 'Sinners' is in the midst of the Oscar campaign season. It has been officially submitted for Academy Award consideration in all eligible categories. The film has already received several key nominations from precursor awards bodies, including a Best Actress nomination for Cate Blanchett from the Hollywood Critics Association and recognition for its cinematography and production design from various guilds. The official Oscar nomination voting period runs from January 30 to February 4, 2025. The nominations for the 98th Academy Awards will be announced on January 21, 2025. The final round of voting for winners takes place from February 11 to February 18, 2025. The current consensus among awards forecasters, as tracked by platforms like Gold Derby, suggests 'Sinners' is a likely nominee for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, and several technical categories.
The 98th Oscars ceremony is scheduled for Sunday, March 2, 2025. It will be broadcast live on ABC from the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California.
The nominations for the 98th Academy Awards will be announced on January 21, 2025. As of now, the film has not yet received any official Oscar nominations, only nominations from precursor awards organizations.
Based on early precursor awards and critical analysis, 'Sinners' is considered a strong contender in categories like Best Actress for Cate Blanchett, Best Cinematography, and Best Production Design. Its chances in top categories like Best Picture and Best Director are also high.
'Sinners' was released theatrically in October 2024. It is expected to become available for digital purchase or rental, and later on a streaming service, following its theatrical window and home video release.
As of late 2024, there is no single definitive favorite. 'Sinners' is among a group of leading contenders that includes other critically acclaimed films from the fall festival season. The race will become clearer after guild awards are presented in January and February 2025.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
19 markets tracked
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| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
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| 32% | 32% | 0% |
| 16% | 12% | 5% |
| 5% | 5% | 1% |
| 5% | 2% | 3% |
| 1% | 2% | 0% |
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Oscars - Sinners If Sinners has won exactly X awards at the 98th Oscars, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2026, the 98th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026. "Sinners" has been nominated for 16 Oscars. This market will resolve according to the number of Oscars won by the film "Sinners" or by people for their roles in that film at the 98th Academy Awards. If for any rea
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2026, the 98th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026. "Sinners" has b
If Sinners has won exactly 4 awards at the 98th Oscars, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2026, the 98th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026. "Sinners" has b
If Sinners has won exactly 5 awards at the 98th Oscars, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
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