Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027?

Total Volume

$4.97K

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Markets

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Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $4.97K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.97K

100%

Kalshi leads

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1 market tracked

Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027?	Kalshi	29%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

29%

Top Probability

$4.97K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2027 If a law authorizing a new personal income tax bracket or surcharge on incomes over $1 million for New York City residents has become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Laws passed by New York State are encompassed within the Payout Criterion if they apply to or govern New York City. Enactment requires completion of all constitutional and legal requirements for the legislation to become binding law. For standard legislation requiring exe

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2027

If a law authorizing a new personal income tax bracket or surcharge on incomes over $1 million for New York City residents has become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Laws passed by New York State are encompassed within the Payout Criterion if they apply to or govern New York City. Enactment requires completion of all constitutional and legal requirements for the legislation to become binding law. For standard legislation requiring exe

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If a law authorizing a new personal income tax bracket or surcharge on incomes over $1 million for New York City residents has become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Laws passed by New York State are encompassed within the Payout Criterion i"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.63M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $5.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

29¢

Kalshi

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Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027?

Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027?

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Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)