$6.43M
2
6
$6.43M
2
6
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Before 2027 If Donald Trump leaves office before January X Y then the market resolves to Yes. If Donald Trump leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price, prior to the death. If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not
Prediction markets currently show a near-even split on whether Donald Trump will leave the presidency before his term ends on January 20, 2029. On major platforms, the combined probability sits around 44%, meaning traders see it as roughly a 4 in 9 chance. In simpler terms, it’s essentially a coin flip. This reflects deep uncertainty, with millions of dollars already wagered on the outcome. The market isn’t forecasting a specific event, but rather the collective judgment that the chances of an early exit are almost as likely as him serving a full term.
Two main factors explain these odds. First, the 2024 election itself is a major variable. If President Trump loses in November, he would leave office in January 2025, making a "Yes" outcome certain. The market’ current probability partly bakes in his chance of losing re-election.
Second, traders are considering non-electoral paths. Historical precedent, like the resignation of President Nixon, shows a presidency can end early under intense political or legal pressure. While no sitting president has been removed by conviction, the market is assigning some possibility to scenarios involving the 25th Amendment, resignation, or a successful impeachment and conviction, however unlikely they may seem.
The single biggest event is the 2024 presidential election on November 5. The result will immediately and dramatically shift these predictions. A Trump victory would likely cause the probability of an early exit to fall sharply, while a loss would send it to 100%.
Before that, watch for significant developments in his ongoing legal cases. A pre-election criminal conviction, while not disqualifying, could be seen by traders as increasing political instability. Major health disclosures or events could also shift the odds, as the market includes all reasons for leaving office except death.
For binary political events like elections, prediction markets have a solid track record, often outperforming polls as they aggregate real money beliefs. However, forecasting rare constitutional crises—like a presidential resignation—is much harder. There’s little historical data, so prices can be swayed by short-term news. The high trading volume here suggests a thoughtful crowd, but the 44% probability is best understood as a snapshot of current sentiment in a highly unusual situation, not a firm prophecy.
Prediction markets currently assign a 44% probability that Donald Trump will leave the presidency before January 20, 2029. This price, derived from high-liquidity markets with over $6.3 million in volume, indicates the outcome is seen as slightly less likely than not. A 44% chance suggests traders view an early exit as a significant risk, but not the expected base case. The market resolves on December 31, 2026, setting a timeline for the first three years of the next presidential term.
Two primary dynamics are compressing the probability below 50%. First, historical precedent strongly favors a full term. No U.S. president has left office early due to removal or resignation since the 1970s, creating a powerful anchoring effect for traders. Second, the specific legal and political pathways for removal remain narrow. While multiple state and federal criminal cases are pending, markets are pricing in the significant constitutional hurdles of a conviction leading to impeachment and removal by Congress, a process that has never succeeded. The 44% price essentially bundles the risk of death, resignation, and successful removal into a single contract.
The odds are most sensitive to developments in Trump’s legal entanglements. A pre-inauguration guilty verdict in a major case, such as the federal election interference trial, could immediately increase the probability of resignation or removal, spiking the "Yes" share price. Conversely, decisive legal victories or the dismissal of key charges would likely drive the probability down. The market will also react to the 2026 midterm elections. A dramatic shift in Congressional composition that alters the impeachment calculus would force a repricing. Health disclosures are a constant, low-probability catalyst.
A notable 6.6% spread exists between platforms, with Kalshi pricing the event higher than Polymarket. This divergence likely stems from platform-specific user demographics and cash-out mechanisms rather than a pure arbitrage opportunity. Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated exchange accessible to American traders, while Polymarket operates globally with cryptocurrency. The difference may reflect varying risk assessments or liquidity constraints between these two distinct trader pools. The spread has persisted despite the high total volume, indicating structural or access-based friction preventing full price convergence.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market addresses whether Donald Trump will leave the U.S. presidency before the year 2027. The market specifically resolves to 'Yes' if Trump exits office before January 1, 2027. A special condition exists for the event of his death: if that is the sole reason for his departure, the exchange will resolve the market based on the last traded price before the death occurred. This topic has gained significant attention due to the unprecedented political and legal circumstances surrounding the former president. Trump is currently the presumptive Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election, having secured the necessary delegates in March 2024. His potential return to office, coupled with ongoing criminal prosecutions and civil litigation, creates multiple plausible scenarios for an early departure, including conviction, resignation, or incapacitation. Interest in this market stems from its intersection of electoral politics, constitutional law, and the judicial system. Analysts and bettors are weighing factors like trial schedules, the 25th Amendment procedures, and historical precedents for presidential exits. The market functions as a collective assessment of political stability and the durability of a potential second Trump administration.
U.S. history provides several precedents for early presidential departures, though none directly mirror Trump's situation. Eight presidents have died in office, the most recent being John F. Kennedy in 1963. One president, Richard Nixon, resigned in 1974 under threat of impeachment for the Watergate scandal. Two presidents, Andrew Johnson in 1868 and Bill Clinton in 1998, were impeached by the House but acquitted by the Senate and thus remained in office. Donald Trump himself was impeached twice by the House, in December 2019 and January 2021, and acquitted by the Senate both times. The 25th Amendment, ratified in 1967, formalized procedures for presidential succession and disability. Its Section 4, which allows the vice president and a majority of the cabinet to declare a president unable to discharge his duties, has never been invoked against a president's will. The only precedent for a criminal prosecution of a former president is Trump's current legal status. No sitting president has ever faced a criminal trial, leaving the constitutional questions largely untested. The 2020 election and its aftermath, culminating in the January 6 Capitol attack, created a modern context where concerns about presidential continuity and removal mechanisms moved from theoretical to immediate political discourse.
The question of a president leaving office early has profound implications for U.S. governance and global stability. A premature departure would trigger immediate succession, placing the vice president in command of the executive branch, military, and nuclear arsenal during a period of likely political turmoil. Financial markets are sensitive to political instability; an unexpected presidential exit could cause significant volatility as investors reassess regulatory and fiscal policies. Domestically, such an event would deepen political polarization, potentially leading to widespread protests and challenging the legitimacy of government institutions in the eyes of many citizens. The scenario tests the resilience of the U.S. constitutional system. It forces practical application of the 25th Amendment and impeachment clauses under extreme partisan conditions. The outcome influences international perceptions of American democracy and affects foreign policy commitments, as allies and adversaries alike would recalculate their strategies based on the sudden change in U.S. leadership.
As of April 2024, Donald Trump is actively campaigning as the Republican Party's presumptive nominee for the November 2024 presidential election. The first of his criminal trials, related to New York state business records, began on April 15, 2024. The U.S. Supreme Court is hearing arguments on Trump's claim of presidential immunity from prosecution for official acts, with a decision expected by late June 2024. This ruling will determine whether and how the federal election interference case prosecuted by Special Counsel Jack Smith can proceed. Polling averages show a close contest between Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden. The timing of potential trials, especially the federal cases, remains uncertain and could overlap with a potential second term.
The U.S. Department of Justice has maintained a policy since 1973 that a sitting president cannot be indicted or criminally prosecuted. This is an internal policy, not a constitutional rule. The Supreme Court is currently considering the related issue of presidential immunity for official acts, which could influence this question.
The 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution addresses presidential succession and disability. Section 4 allows the vice president and a majority of the cabinet to declare the president unable to discharge his duties. This declaration transfers power to the vice president as acting president. The president can contest this, leading to a congressional vote.
No U.S. president has ever been removed from office via the impeachment process. The House of Representatives has impeached three presidents (Andrew Johnson, Bill Clinton, and Donald Trump twice), but the Senate acquitted each one, failing to reach the two-thirds majority required for conviction and removal.
There is no constitutional barrier preventing a convicted felon from running for or serving as president. A candidate could campaign and win from prison. However, a conviction could influence voter decisions and create immense political pressure on the candidate to withdraw from the race.
The presidential line of succession is established by the Constitution and federal law. If Trump left office during a potential second term, Vice President-elect would immediately become president. If both offices were vacant, the Speaker of the House of Representatives would be next in line.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
5 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14% | 18% | 3% |
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Before 2027 If Donald Trump leaves office before January X Y then the market resolves to Yes. If Donald Trump leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price, prior to the death. If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify
If Donald Trump leaves office before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If Donald Trump leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last trad
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/remo
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