Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Indiana Hoosiers (W)
Total Volume
$30.99
Events
1
Markets
1
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Indiana Hoosiers (W)
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
1
markets · $30.99
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Volume DistributionTotal: $30.99
100%
Polymarket leads
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Indiana Hoosiers (W)
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 49% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
49%
Top Probability
$30.99
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
This event is for the WBB game between Penn State Nittany Lions and Indiana Hoosiers on February 28 at 2:00 PM ET. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets currently give the Penn State Nittany Lions about a 58% chance to beat the Akron Zips. In simpler terms, traders collectively see this as a slight edge for Penn State, roughly a 3 in 5 probability. This is not a confident forecast of a sure win. It signals a game that the market views as fairly close, with Penn State as a modest favorite.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
The odds reflect the typical dynamics of an early-season college basketball game between a major conference team and a respected mid-major program. Penn State plays in the powerful Big Ten, which generally means they have more highly-rated recruits. However, Akron is consistently one of the top teams in the Mid-American Conference (MAC). They often win their league and are a tough opponent that major schools prefer not to schedule.
This specific game is part of the "College Basketball Invitational" tournament, a multi-team event played at campus sites early in the season. These games can be unpredictable as teams are still figuring out their rotations. Penn State may have the talent advantage on paper, but Akron’s experienced roster and system under coach John Groce make them a legitimate threat to pull an upset, which is why the market isn’t giving Penn State overwhelming odds.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The outcome will be decided when the game tips off. The scheduled date is November 12 at 12:00 AM ET (effectively late on November 11). No other future events will change this prediction. The only thing that could shift the odds before then is significant, last-minute news, such as a key player being ruled out for either team due to injury or illness. Barring that, the market will resolve based on the final score of this single contest.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
For regular-season college basketball games, prediction markets are often quite accurate, frequently performing as well as or better than established power ratings and betting lines. They aggregate the knowledge of many fans and analysts watching team form, injuries, and matchups. The main limitation here is the small market size—only about $36,000 has been wagered. This suggests the wisdom of the crowd might be thinner than for a high-profile football game, so the probability could be more sensitive to new information or a few large bets.
Current Market Outlook
Prediction markets assign Penn State a 58% probability of defeating Akron. This price indicates a narrow favorite status for the Nittany Lions, suggesting the game is viewed as competitive. With $36,000 in total volume, liquidity is thin. This can lead to price volatility not fully reflective of true odds, as a few large bets can move the market significantly. A 58% chance translates to an implied moneyline of roughly -138, a margin thinner than many pre-game analyst spreads would typically show for a major conference team hosting a mid-major.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The primary factor is Penn State's inconsistent performance history in early-season non-conference games. While they possess a clear talent and resource advantage as a Big Ten program, they have a record of playing down to competition in November. Akron, projected to finish near the top of the Mid-American Conference, is a legitimate opponent capable of exploiting a slow start. The market price essentially builds in a ~10% premium for Akron's upset potential compared to a pure power-rating model, accounting for Penn State's volatility. The thin volume amplifies this sentiment, as sharp bettors may see value in the underdog at this price.
What Could Change These Odds
Significant line movement is unlikely due to the imminent resolution, but the current odds reveal a key betting insight. If this were a more liquid market, the 58% price for Penn State would likely attract "sharp" money backing the Nittany Lions, pushing their probability higher. In low-volume markets, the price often reflects a consensus that finds the official point spread too generous to the favorite. For this specific game, the market has effectively priced in a scenario where Penn State wins a close, low-comfort game rather than a dominant blowout.
Cross-Platform Analysis
This market is trading on Polymarket alone. The absence of a comparable market on Kalshi or other platforms prevents arbitrage and means the 58% price is the sole collective prediction available. This isolation, combined with the low volume, makes this market more indicative of niche sentiment than a broad, efficient forecast. The price is best interpreted as a signal that informed traders see more risk in this game for the favorite than a casual observer might.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.