Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

Name: Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?
End: 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$23.23K

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Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

Vol

$23.23K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $23.23K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $23.23K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	Poly	59%
Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	Poly	33%
Will there be a Hormuz agreement, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	Poly	5%
Will there be a Hormuz agreement, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

59%

Top Probability

$23.23K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/urg.pdf

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 4, 2026 (23 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/urg.pdf

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $23.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.43M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be a Hormuz agreement, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $6.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be a Hormuz agreement, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $6.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $5.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 58.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics