Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Rio Grande do Norte Governor winner?

Total Volume

$9.41K

Events

Markets

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Rio Grande do Norte Governor winner?

Vol

$9.41K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $9.41K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $9.41K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	84%
Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	16%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

84%

Top Probability

$9.41K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

in 2026 in 2026 This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Rio Grande do Norte Governor winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in 2026

in 2026 This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Cadu de Lula wins the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $9.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 4, 2027): Vol $5.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 4, 2027): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 83.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Rio Grande do Norte Governor winner?

Volume$9.41K

Markets2

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KALSHI

Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 83.5¢No 16.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

If Allyson wins the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expir

KALSHI

Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.0¢No 84.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

If Cadu de Lula wins the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/aVv-I5" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Rio Grande do Norte Governor winner?"></iframe>

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Rio Grande do Norte Governor winner?

Rio Grande do Norte Governor winner?

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Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Rio Grande do Norte Governor winner?

Markets (2)

Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

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Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Rio Grande do Norte Governor winner?

Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

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