The 2028 Alaska Senate race will determine who represents the state in the U.S. Senate for a six-year term beginning in January 2029. Alaska, with a population of about 736,000, has a small but politically complex electorate. The state has a history of electing both Republicans and Democrats to the Senate, including the late Ted Stevens (R) who served from 1968 to 2009, and Mark Begich (D) who served one term from 2009 to 2015. The current senior senator is Lisa Murkowski (R), who has been in office since 2002, and the junior senator is Dan Sullivan (R), first elected in 2014. The 2028 race will likely involve the seat held by Sullivan, as his term ends in January 2029, or potentially Murkowski's seat if she retires or runs for another office. The state's unique ranked-choice voting system, adopted by ballot initiative in 2020 and first used in a Senate race in 2022, adds complexity to the outcome. In 2022, Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski won reelection under ranked-choice voting, defeating Republican challenger Kelly Tshibaka and Democrat Pat Chesbro. The system allows voters to rank candidates, and if no candidate gets a majority of first-choice votes, the lowest-ranking candidate is eliminated and their votes are redistributed. This system has shifted campaign strategies, as candidates must appeal to a broader base to secure second- and third-choice votes. The 2028 race is also influenced by national political trends, including Alaska's strong Republican lean in presidential elections (Donald Trump won the state by 10 points in 2020 and by 13 points in 2024). However, the state's independent streak, particularly among Native Alaskan and rural voters, can produce unpredictable results. The 2028 election will also be shaped by the political climate at the time, including the popularity of the sitting president and major national issues like energy policy, federal land management, and the Permanent Fund Dividend. Alaska's economy is heavily dependent on oil and gas revenue, which provides about 85% of the state's unrestricted general fund revenue, making energy policy a central issue. The race will also be affected by candidate recruitment, fundraising, and the ability to navigate the state's vast geography, which includes 365,000 square miles and 229 federally recognized tribes. The outcome of the 2028 Alaska Senate race will have implications for the Senate's partisan balance, as the chamber is currently split 51-49 in favor of Republicans after the 2024 elections. A Democratic pickup in Alaska would be a significant upset, given the state's Republican lean, but it is not impossible, as shown by Begich's 2008 win. Conversely, a Republican hold would maintain the status quo. The race will also test the durability of ranked-choice voting in a state that has seen legal challenges to the system, including a 2024 state Supreme Court case that upheld the system. The 2028 election will be a key battleground for both parties, with national groups investing heavily in advertising, field operations, and voter outreach.

Historical Context

Alaska has a Senate history that reflects its unique political culture. From 1968 to 2009, the state was represented by Ted Stevens (R), who became the longest-serving Republican senator in history. His tenure ended with an indictment for corruption (later dropped) and his death in a 2010 plane crash. Stevens was succeeded by Mark Begich (D), who won a narrow election in 2008 and served one term before losing to Dan Sullivan in 2014. The state has also had a history of split-party representation, including from 2009 to 2015 when Begich served alongside Lisa Murkowski. Murkowski's own path to office was unusual: she was appointed by her father in 2002, then won a full term in 2004. In 2010, she lost the Republican primary to tea party challenger Joe Miller but won the general election as a write-in candidate, becoming the first person to win a Senate race as a write-in since Strom Thurmond in 1954. That race demonstrated Alaska's willingness to reject party orthodoxy. The adoption of ranked-choice voting in 2020 was a major shift. The system was approved by ballot measure with 50.5% of the vote and first used in the 2022 Senate race. In that race, Murkowski won with 54% of the final round vote after Tshibaka was eliminated. The system has been controversial, with a 2024 Alaska Supreme Court case (Kohring v. Alaska) upholding its constitutionality. The 2028 race will be the third Senate election under ranked-choice voting, and its impact on candidate strategies and voter behavior will be more established. The state's political geography is also important. Southeast Alaska (the Panhandle) leans Democratic, while the Anchorage area and the Matanuska-Susitna Valley are Republican strongholds. Rural areas, particularly those with high Native Alaskan populations (which make up about 15% of the state's population), often swing between parties based on candidate appeal. The Permanent Fund Dividend, an annual payment to residents from oil revenue, is a major issue. In 2024, the dividend was $1,702 per person, and debates over its size and funding affect voter sentiment. The 2028 race will also be influenced by the state's economic dependence on oil. The Trans-Alaska Pipeline System, which began operations in 1977, has seen declining throughput from a peak of 2.1 million barrels per day in 1988 to about 500,000 barrels per day in 2024. This decline has led to debates over new drilling, including in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska.