Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

Name: Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$348.91K

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Markets

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Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

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Polymarket

markets · $348.91K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $348.91K

100%

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1 market tracked

Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	Poly	11%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

11%

Top Probability

$348.91K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively remove

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (230 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively remove

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $348.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $47.2K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 7.40)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $348.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

229d 12h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

11¢

Polymarket

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Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

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Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)