Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been the dominant figure in Turkish politics for over two decades, serving as Prime Minister from 2003 to 2014 and as President since 2014. This prediction market asks whether he will leave office by December 31, 2026, through resignation, removal, or any other means. The question reflects growing uncertainty about Turkey's political stability amid economic turmoil, a devastating earthquake, and shifting electoral dynamics. Erdoğan's tenure has been marked by a steady consolidation of power, including a 2017 constitutional referendum that transformed Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential system. This change abolished the prime minister role and gave the president direct control over the cabinet, budget, and judiciary. Critics argue the system lacks checks and balances, while supporters say it provides stronger governance. The next presidential election is scheduled for 2028, but Erdoğan could leave earlier through resignation, a no-confidence vote, health issues, or a snap election called by his own party. Interest in this market spiked after the 2023 presidential election, where Erdoğan won a second term in a runoff against Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. The election was seen as a test of Turkey's democratic resilience, and Erdoğan's victory, while narrow, dispelled predictions of his immediate downfall. However, the country faces a severe cost-of-living crisis, with inflation peaking at 85.5% in October 2022 before moderating. The February 2023 earthquakes killed over 50,000 people and exposed failures in construction oversight and emergency response. These factors have eroded public trust and raised questions about Erdoğan's long-term viability. The market also considers scenarios like a military coup, a palace coup within the AK Party, or a health emergency. Erdoğan, born in 1954, has faced health scares in the past, including a 2011 surgery and a 2023 televised illness that forced him to cancel campaign events. The question is not just about Erdoğan but about the future of Turkey's political system and its role in NATO, the EU accession talks, and regional conflicts in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean.

Historical Context

Turkey's modern political history is marked by cycles of military interventions and civilian rule. The 1960, 1971, and 1980 coups removed elected governments, with the 1980 coup leading to a new constitution that gave the military significant oversight powers. The 1997 'post-modern coup' forced Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan from office. Erdoğan's AK Party, rooted in political Islam, came to power in 2002 after a financial crisis that wiped out 30% of GDP. The party initially pursued EU accession reforms and economic liberalization, winning three consecutive elections. In 2013, Gezi Park protests marked a turning point, with Erdoğan's government responding with heavy police force. The 2016 coup attempt, blamed on the Gülen movement, killed 250 people and led to a massive purge of state institutions, with over 130,000 public servants dismissed and 50,000 arrested. Erdoğan then pushed for the 2017 constitutional referendum, which passed with 51.4% of the vote, abolishing the prime minister role and centralizing executive power. The 2018 elections were the first under the new system, with Erdoğan winning the presidency in the first round. The 2023 election was the most competitive since 2002, with Erdoğan winning 52.2% in the runoff. Historically, Turkish presidents have served full terms, but no president has resigned or been removed. The only early departure was President Cemal Gürsel in 1966 due to health reasons. The 2023 earthquakes were the deadliest in modern Turkish history, killing over 50,000 people and causing an estimated $34 billion in damage. The government's slow response sparked widespread criticism and protests.