What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Prediction markets currently give about an 8% chance that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will leave office before the end of 2026. In simple terms, traders see this as a very unlikely event, estimating roughly a 1 in 12 chance. This shows strong collective confidence that Erdoğan will remain in power through this period.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

The low probability is based on several factors. First, Erdoğan holds significant institutional power. He won a decisive re-election in May 2023, securing another five-year term that runs until 2028. The Turkish political system, especially after constitutional changes in 2017, concentrates authority in the presidency, making a sudden, involuntary exit difficult.

Second, there is no clear, immediate successor or rival with enough consolidated support to force a change outside of a scheduled election. While Turkey faces economic challenges like high inflation, opposition parties have struggled to maintain a unified front against Erdoğan's ruling AK Party.

Finally, history supports stability in the near term. Erdoğan has been Turkey's dominant political figure for over two decades, surviving mass protests, an attempted coup in 2016, and economic crises. Markets are betting on his proven resilience.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The next major electoral test is the local elections on March 31, 2024. A severe loss for the AK Party, especially in key cities like Istanbul and Ankara, could signal weakening political control, but it would not directly force Erdoğan from the presidency.

Beyond that, the timeline is quiet regarding formal mechanisms for removal. Observers will watch for signs of serious health issues, though the government tightly controls such information. Any major escalation of Turkey's economic problems or a significant fracture within the AK Party itself could increase political uncertainty, but neither scenario is currently seen as likely to trigger a departure before 2027.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

Prediction markets are generally reliable for forecasting political stability in systems with strong incumbents, often performing well when asking "if" a leader will fall rather than "when." Their track record in similar contexts, like forecasting low odds for a sudden leadership change in Russia, has been decent.

The main limitation here is the potential for black swan events—unforeseen health, military, or deep internal party crises that are difficult to price. The 8% probability essentially represents the market's estimate for these unpredictable shocks. For planned, electoral transitions, these markets are more accurate, but for unexpected removals, the uncertainty is much higher.