This prediction market addresses whether Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the long-serving President of Türkiye, will be removed from power before the end of 2026. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Erdoğan resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his presidential duties between July 24, 2024, and December 31, 2026. This timeframe is significant as it follows the March 2023 presidential election, which Erdoğan won, extending his rule into a third decade. The question reflects ongoing speculation about the stability of his leadership amid significant economic challenges, shifting geopolitical alliances, and domestic political pressures. Interest in this topic stems from Erdoğan's central role in shaping modern Türkiye, his consolidation of executive power through constitutional changes, and the potential for profound regional and global consequences should his tenure end unexpectedly. Observers monitor several potential catalysts for his removal, including health concerns, legal challenges, economic collapse, or a decisive shift in public and institutional support. The market serves as a collective assessment of risks to one of the world's most enduring political figures.

Historical Context

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's political ascent began with his election as Mayor of Istanbul in 1994. He became Prime Minister in 2003 after his Justice and Development Party (AKP) won a parliamentary majority in 2002, ending years of unstable coalition governments. His early years were marked by economic growth and EU accession talks, but his rule grew increasingly authoritarian following mass protests in 2013 (Gezi Park) and a failed coup attempt in July 2016. The latter event triggered a widespread purge of state institutions and the declaration of a state of emergency. A pivotal moment was the 2017 constitutional referendum, which narrowly passed and transformed Türkiye from a parliamentary system to an executive presidency, greatly expanding Erdoğan's powers. He won the first presidential election under this new system in 2018. His political survival has been tested by economic turmoil, with the Turkish lira losing over 80% of its value against the US dollar since 2018, and by significant electoral setbacks for the AKP in major cities like Istanbul and Ankara during the 2019 local elections. The precedent for removal is rare in recent Turkish history; the last forced departure of a leader was Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan in 1997 via a 'post-modern coup' orchestrated by the military. Erdoğan has systematically reduced the political influence of the military, making a similar intervention less likely.

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