Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

When will Google release Gemini 4?

Total Volume

$222.82K

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When will Google release Gemini 4?

Vol

$222.82K

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $222.82K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $222.82K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Jan 1, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Google release Gemini 4 before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	98%
Will Google release Gemini 4 before Nov 15, 2026?	Kalshi	98%
Will Google release Gemini 4 before Dec 15, 2026?	Kalshi	96%
Will Google release Gemini 4 before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	96%
Will Google release Gemini 4 before Nov 1, 2026?	Kalshi	88%
Will Google release Gemini 4 before Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	50%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

98%

Top Probability

$222.82K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Gemini 4 If Google releases Gemini 4 before X Y Z then the market resolves to Yes. Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will Google release Gemini 4?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Gemini 4

If Google releases Gemini 4 before X Y Z then the market resolves to Yes. Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Google releases Gemini 4 before Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event o"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $222.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Google release Gemini 4 before Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 23, 2026): Vol $154.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Google release Gemini 4 before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Google release Gemini 4 before Nov 15, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 22, 2026): Vol $9.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Google release Gemini 4 before Nov 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2026): Vol $40.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 87.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Google release Gemini 4 before Dec 15, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 22, 2026): Vol $5.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 96.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Google release Gemini 4 before Dec 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $10.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

When will Google release Gemini 4?

Volume$222.82K

Markets6

6 of 6

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KALSHI

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHITech

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Jan 1, 2027?

If Google releases Gemini 4 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event oc

KALSHI

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Nov 15, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHITech

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Nov 15, 2026?

If Google releases Gemini 4 before Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event o

KALSHI

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Dec 15, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.0¢No 4.0¢

KALSHITech

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Dec 15, 2026?

If Google releases Gemini 4 before Dec 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event o

KALSHI

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Dec 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.5¢No 4.5¢

KALSHITech

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Dec 1, 2026?

If Google releases Gemini 4 before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event oc

KALSHI

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Nov 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 87.5¢No 12.5¢

KALSHITech

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Nov 1, 2026?

If Google releases Gemini 4 before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event oc

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87¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/aYPuAm" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="When will Google release Gemini 4?"></iframe>

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When will Google release Gemini 4?

When will Google release Gemini 4?

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Will Google release Gemini 4 before Jan 1, 2027?

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Events (1)

When will Google release Gemini 4?

Markets (6)

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Nov 15, 2026?

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Nov 15, 2026?

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Dec 15, 2026?

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Dec 15, 2026?

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Dec 1, 2026?

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Dec 1, 2026?

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Nov 1, 2026?

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Nov 1, 2026?

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Will Google release Gemini 4 before Jan 1, 2027?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

When will Google release Gemini 4?

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Nov 15, 2026?

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Nov 15, 2026?

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Dec 15, 2026?

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Dec 15, 2026?

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Dec 1, 2026?

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Dec 1, 2026?

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Nov 1, 2026?

Will Google release Gemini 4 before Nov 1, 2026?

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